Basically, to control the virus early would have required a full shutdown of China travel earlier than the partial shutdown, and a shutdown of European travel when we did the partial China one:https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/?mod=hp_lead_pos5 …
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No one is arguing that there weren't. We are asking whether Donald Trump failed in some way peculiar to him, or in some way that was pretty common among large countries with a lot of introductions. The answer Ross and I come to is "Not obviously worse in Spring, bad in summer."
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Though I think that actually, once you control for density and slightly later super-spreading, Donald Trump underperformed even on those metrics--but also that this is a complex case unlikely to convince many people who didn't already hate Trump.
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