I mean, I think we should have done better, because we had longer to get it right, but bad US policy doesn't show up in the data in the early, critical months.
-
-
Replying to @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT
Yes, almost all of Western Europe flunked because they went with the flu playbook, rather than SARS/MERS (hence my article) but it's not just Japan and South Korea. Yes, Germany. But also Uruguay. (Despite elsewhere in Latin America failing badly). Uganda. There's more.
2 replies 5 retweets 23 likes -
It's not true that we were doomed because introductions happened. And, look, South Korea had a massive, massive early outbreak because of terrible luck. The Pacific Rim didn't do well by magic. Aggressive response to outbreak+targeting indoors/ventilation/crowds/clusters+masks.
2 replies 6 retweets 32 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT
I think there are two separate questions: first, were there policy interventions that could have minimized this despite multiple introductions? Absolutely, yes. Second, were those interventions politically possible in places that hadn't had a major pandemic in 100 years?
4 replies 2 retweets 12 likes -
Leaving aside small countries (because statistically, you'd expect small countries to have both the best and the worst outcomes, even if policy was the same everywhere, just due to natural variance), I think the evidence on #2 is "Not really".
2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes -
Replying to @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT
Why? Look at Japan. Multiple introductions. Early outbreak. No lock-down, ever—not even legally possible. Aging population. Dense cities. Mass transportation. Not a small country. In March, Americans would have rallied around sensible precautions because people wanted to be safe.
1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT
On the Pacific Rim, already has a pandemic/mask culture. Different problem from Europe/US.
2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes -
Also, I think the evidence suggests there may be some background immunity from a related coronavirus circulating in Asia--Thailand/Vietnam hard to explain without it, even with excellent policy.
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
It's like all the reports after 9/11 that both Bush and Clinton had intelligence that could have, if used properly, prevented the attack.
2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT
I *completely* disagree with this argument. 9/11 was a rare event; terrorism *is* hard to prevent. Pandemics are recurring, stable events. Total opposite. We had SARS! The immunity argument just does not work. Why is Uruguay "immune" and not Argentina/Brazil? S.Korea immune? No.
4 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
Culture? South Korea overthrew a government in the streets, we never do anything like that. Hong Kong spent last year engulfed in unrest.
-
-
Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT
They went through SARS. People take it seriously. People will take the next pandemic seriously here, too.
4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
no they won’t bc gop has convinced its base that pandemics are fake. the point is the utter incompetence of us gov and in particular utter cynicism from gop is how we got here and everything mcardle tries to do to obscure this reality ends up making it even clearer
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.