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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      Germany got it right secondarily, but with pretty significant restrictions; every other large European country failed. Trump's not an outlier until summer.

      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    2. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      I mean, I think we should have done better, because we had longer to get it right, but bad US policy doesn't show up in the data in the early, critical months.

      4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

      Yes, almost all of Western Europe flunked because they went with the flu playbook, rather than SARS/MERS (hence my article) but it's not just Japan and South Korea. Yes, Germany. But also Uruguay. (Despite elsewhere in Latin America failing badly). Uganda. There's more.

      2 replies 5 retweets 23 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

      It's not true that we were doomed because introductions happened. And, look, South Korea had a massive, massive early outbreak because of terrible luck. The Pacific Rim didn't do well by magic. Aggressive response to outbreak+targeting indoors/ventilation/crowds/clusters+masks.

      2 replies 6 retweets 32 likes
    5. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      I think there are two separate questions: first, were there policy interventions that could have minimized this despite multiple introductions? Absolutely, yes. Second, were those interventions politically possible in places that hadn't had a major pandemic in 100 years?

      4 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
    6. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      Leaving aside small countries (because statistically, you'd expect small countries to have both the best and the worst outcomes, even if policy was the same everywhere, just due to natural variance), I think the evidence on #2 is "Not really".

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

      Why? Look at Japan. Multiple introductions. Early outbreak. No lock-down, ever—not even legally possible. Aging population. Dense cities. Mass transportation. Not a small country. In March, Americans would have rallied around sensible precautions because people wanted to be safe.

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
    8. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      On the Pacific Rim, already has a pandemic/mask culture. Different problem from Europe/US.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      Also, I think the evidence suggests there may be some background immunity from a related coronavirus circulating in Asia--Thailand/Vietnam hard to explain without it, even with excellent policy.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @zeynep @DouthatNYT

      It's like all the reports after 9/11 that both Bush and Clinton had intelligence that could have, if used properly, prevented the attack.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

      I *completely* disagree with this argument. 9/11 was a rare event; terrorism *is* hard to prevent. Pandemics are recurring, stable events. Total opposite. We had SARS! The immunity argument just does not work. Why is Uruguay "immune" and not Argentina/Brazil? S.Korea immune? No.

      8:01 AM - 9 Oct 2020
      • 11 Likes
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      4 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT

          I don't think immunity is the whole story. I think this is complicated. And I think you've done amazing work identifying policy interventions that work. But I also think you are discounting the challenges of getting the public to do something about a threat that seems remote.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @asymmetricinfo @zeynep @DouthatNYT

          I think we'll perform way better in the next pandemic, if, God forbid, we have such a thing. Just as Asia is performing better than it did in the face of SARS I.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

          Culture? South Korea overthrew a government in the streets, we never do anything like that. Hong Kong spent last year engulfed in unrest.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @DouthatNYT

          They went through SARS. People take it seriously. People will take the next pandemic seriously here, too.

          4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Steve Jackson  💙‏ @StevJacks 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

          Are people still arguing that anyone in the developing world who did well must have fluked it? Nobody who has spent these past nine months in Vietnam can doubt that excellent progress is down to anything other than an incredible united effort.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Colleen Blick‏ @collblick 9 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @asymmetricinfo @DouthatNYT

          Wasn't the western experience from SARS watching a few Asian countries successfully suppress it before it was here in large numbers? Complacency about protocols here because they were really good at controlling SARS near the source was in keeping with that experience.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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