Basically, to control the virus early would have required a full shutdown of China travel earlier than the partial shutdown, and a shutdown of European travel when we did the partial China one:https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/?mod=hp_lead_pos5 …
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To a first approximation, no large country outside the Pacific Rim got it right that early (counting Canada, which had significant exposure to Original SARS)
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Germany got it right secondarily, but with pretty significant restrictions; every other large European country failed. Trump's not an outlier until summer.
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I guess I think the regional concentration of success stories in small, pandemic-hardened Pacific Rim countries is telling; I read your "once a country has too many outbreaks" paragraph as describing the US in most plausible late-February conditions.
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The example of Europe shows that it's possible to suppress w/harder lockdowns after a major trauma, and it's reasonable to see US failure in that regard in May/June. But no big non-Pacific country, not even Germany, achieved SK/Taiwan/Japan suppression early once it was seeded.
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