...from the point of view of actually controlling disease. Our turn-around times simply aren't quick enough. Let's think about this...
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If I have a case who's been reported to me after a several day turn-around time on their test (brown bar below), and who took a few days to get tested (green), but who was infecting when pre-symptomatic (orange)...pic.twitter.com/2jfxKV29Tg
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By the time I reach out to their contacts, their contacts' secondary cases are already infecting a tertiary generation of cases! I already missed the boat! Does it sound good? Yeah! Are apps awesome? We love apps! Leaf trombone! Ocarina app! House party!
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So we're doing late and ineffective contact tracing on a small fraction of cases, and paying nearly 1000 people to impersonate Lucille Ball in the candy factorypic.twitter.com/aF8cRsHnRl
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Can contact tracing be important and impactful? Hell^yeah. If you're in the North, or Atlantic Canada, or Saskatchewan at 13-14 cases a day. We need the kinds of closures Dr. DeVilla was begging the province to allow yesterday to get back to a level where CT becomes meaningful
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What might be even more powerful? Leverage the place-based nature of COVID risk, and rather than rely on apps, use QR readers on venues so that when you have a case, you can identify the venue where the superspreader event they were infected at happened.
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E.g., did they tap-on/tap-off when they got invited to a Rose Garden reception for Amy Coney Barrett, that kind of thing. Efficient. This is the sort of stuff
@zeynep was writing about in her magnificent piece in the Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …9 replies 25 retweets 67 likesShow this thread -
The Rose Garden event was paid advertising for Zeynep’s fantastic super-spreader article.
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Replying to @jwoodgett @DFisman
Not on purpose. But they were bound to get unlucky. And yes venue tracing seems more sensible once cases spike.
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They’ve been very lucky until now and that luck has been misinterpreted by many into buying into their deprecation of the need for precautions.
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That’s exactly why I spent many paragraphs explaining how overdispersion fries our causal reasoning circuits. It’s too easy to conflate luck with immunity & moralize bad luck. But we can learn from sustained success. Constantly drawing from that negative binomial. Bound to hit.
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Loved your article! Shared it to my Facebook and encouraged friends to read it & several did. The more we educate people the better our response will be. Thank you!
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Thank you!
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