We’ve been paying a lot of attention to the R number with coronavirus – but perhaps the more relevant letter is K. The Atlantic’s @zeynep Tufekci explains.pic.twitter.com/DSBpFMAKTj
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I think I understand: Everyone infects a random number of others, following a Poisson distribution with mean nu. But nu varies from person to person, following a gamma distribution; high nu means a high propensity to spread. K is the shape parameter of the gamma. Is that right?
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Did you know that *study after study* finds most people don't seem to transmit COVID at all? That a small percent is responsible for almost all infections? That R is not that informative? My new piece on why this may be key to controlling the pandemic.