I was initially sceptical of the extent of overdispersion in #SARSCoV2 transmission, due to evidence mainly coming from countries with low rates of transmission and studies with small numbers
This explains it all and has changed my mind for good
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …
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Added to the mix was the new study from India looking at large scale contact tracing with high levels community transmission showing very similar findings (ignore the conclusions about kids, see separate thread regarding this) https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672.full … 2/3
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My take aways: -Overdispersion plays an oversized role in early phases of community spread; its how it takes hold -Once it's rolling, household etc transmission sustains spread -Once cases low, you MUST CLUSTER BUST, more bang for your buck tracing backwards than forwards 3/3
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Alasdair Munro Retweeted Alasdair Munro
Bonus tweet If you're not following
@zeynep the author of this article then you're doing pandemic twitter wrong Here is the thread explaining why the study of contact tracing from India has issues with its data on kidshttps://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1311616478844780544?s=20 …Alasdair Munro added,
Alasdair MunroVerified account @apsmunro"If there's one thing we learn from history, it's that we don't learn from history" A new study from India looks at#COVID19 contact tracing And now reported, "[children] transmitted the virus at rates similar to the rest of the population"
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-09-30/largest-covid-19-transmission-study-highlights-super-spreaders …
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