Then again, the number of people who assume that I just "discovered" skewed distributions or the Pareto principle this month has been pretty impressive, too. Always makes me wonder if men get the article they just wrote explained back to them this much?
https://twitter.com/RobotArchie/status/1311456542047326214 …?
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
This example is exactly why we should do more backward tracing for a superspreading pandemic. It means, mathematically, “who infected you” can be a more productive question then “who did you contact since becoming infected”—forward tracing. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ … ht
@reillyhay https://twitter.com/kj_seung/status/1311443956656492548 …zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted christa teston
The why of superspreading isn't fully settled. I do have more about it in my article on the importance of ventilation from July. Crowded, poorly-ventilated indoors is a common factor, though individual variation is also plausible. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ …https://twitter.com/christateston/status/1311653698490294272 …
zeynep tufekci added,
christa teston @christatestonReplying to @zeynep24 hours later and I’m still thinking about your piece. A thing I’m worried about is: conflating two different (but interactive) mechanisms: the so-called super spreader human and/or the contextual circumstances that resulted in them being a super spreader in the first place.9 replies 38 retweets 232 likesShow this thread -
I'm getting many questions on superspreading. My July article on ventilation has details on what we know of the science, but there *is* a tl;dr: Let's focus on Japan's 3C: avoid closed (indoor) spaces with crowds, especially at close range and/or unmasked. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ …pic.twitter.com/zylUPsnv4N
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Much gratitude to
@svscarpino,@AdamJKucharski,@mugecevik,@dylanhmorris &@nataliexdean who are quoted and to many others whose papers I read, and to Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani who patiently answers my Japan questions and to@miekocakes who has been a tireless translator & bridge!4 replies 8 retweets 140 likesShow this thread -
Also, my sense from years of writing on the messy, complicated topic of technology and society, and now about the pandemic science/sociology intersection: There is a real demand for factual, dense and long pieces that don't simplify or cut corners, but do try to stay readable.
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It's not that I or anyone else can get everything right all the time (nobody can; anyone thinking out loud on complex topics will miss things or get things wrong) but that we can and we should try to dive into it all, with all the complexity, and treat the public as partners.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Chip Uni
Yes! As I explain in my piece, the polarization around Sweden is not useful because Sweden is a middling country—not that lax but also not great. It's not an example of success OR failure of herd immunity or lockdowns. Japan, though, is *very* interesting.https://twitter.com/chip_uni/status/1311727369086922757 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Chip Uni @chip_uniAn article in The Atlantic by@zeynep changed how I think about COVID-19. The disease is likely spread by fewer, super-spreading events, and Japan might have had the optimal response to the disease. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/?utm_source=pocket-newtab …10 replies 63 retweets 274 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
I suspect comparisons to other countries (with strong cultural differences to uk) isnt very useful. Behaviour at an individual level and the attitude to compliance is so different as to make any interventions unique to that country (extreme case - China lockdown).
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The opposite. Spain opened up restaurants and nightclubs, indoors. Giant nightclubs with potentially thousands of people were allowed to operate at "lower capacity." Spain is a tragic example of how "strict" isn't strict unless the target is correct.
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Replying to @zeynep @jeremy_hume
One question - is their any research around correlation between severity of disease and propensity to get infected? Could R have been higher for those who would go on to get very ill in the first wave? If so there may be lower IFR in second wave.
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