COVID has a very skewed distribution in its transmission patterns. You can't beat back a threat if you don't take into account how it operates, and this skew—its overdispersion— should affect the way we do *everything* from tracing to testing. That's what countries like Japan do.
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Much gratitude to
@svscarpino,@AdamJKucharski,@mugecevik,@dylanhmorris &@nataliexdean who are quoted and to many others whose papers I read, and to Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani who patiently answers my Japan questions and to@miekocakes who has been a tireless translator & bridge!Show this thread -
Also, my sense from years of writing on the messy, complicated topic of technology and society, and now about the pandemic science/sociology intersection: There is a real demand for factual, dense and long pieces that don't simplify or cut corners, but do try to stay readable.
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It's not that I or anyone else can get everything right all the time (nobody can; anyone thinking out loud on complex topics will miss things or get things wrong) but that we can and we should try to dive into it all, with all the complexity, and treat the public as partners.
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Yes! As I explain in my piece, the polarization around Sweden is not useful because Sweden is a middling country—not that lax but also not great. It's not an example of success OR failure of herd immunity or lockdowns. Japan, though, is *very* interesting.https://twitter.com/chip_uni/status/1311727369086922757 …
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As explained in my overdispersion piece, if there are two transmission events (both the President and the First Lady) there are likely more. Also see my earlier piece about airborne transmission: indoors, six feet isn't enough and the *talker* can infect. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ …pic.twitter.com/AaodjKT7RO
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This pathogen can be surprisingly non-contagious most of the time... But when it strikes, it's often in clusters. So they may well have a cluster on their hands.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1312024557356806145 …
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The cost of not following the science. The CDC still has not (re)posted updated airborne transmission guidelines, and WHO still has not updated their documents for the public. DISTANCE IS NOT PROTECTIVE ENOUGH INDOORS. Ventilate, filter, mask up.https://twitter.com/jonlevyBU/status/1311976244553101313 …
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Yes. The authorities should never have let anyone—no matter their position—tour hospitals unmasked in violation of their own rules. The debate commission should have stood its ground. The WHO and the CDC should have listened to the scientists. So it goes.https://twitter.com/spin4srv/status/1312027812551970818 …
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Yes, the Trump campaign was flouting the guidelines. But the current guidelines we do have from the CDC and the WHO are not enough to protect Biden. Such failure puts at risk people who do follow the rules. Indoors, distance alone IS NOT enough to prevent airborne transmission.
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It looks increasingly like a cluster. The key question will be if they all got infected from the same source/event. With all this, it would be irresponsible not to quarantine almost everyone in the White House and the Senate. Tests can need days to detect.https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1312055257992753152 …
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No word on ventilation, no mention that distance isn't protective enough indoors, and no enforcing of masks. This is why the lack of CDC guidelines on airborne transmission matter. WHO docs still say no masks necessary indoors if separated by three feet!https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1312058477758603265 …
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Indoors. Unmasked. Talking.https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1311064032300929038 …
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Cluster looking more and more likely.https://twitter.com/jackmjenkins/status/1312068942157025280 …
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Cluster. K. Overdispersion. Airborne. Backward tracing. (Words and concepts we need the talk more about.)https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1312079653486632961 …
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Yes, finally! For details on why this is important, see my article on aerosol/airborne transmission. https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614737/ …https://twitter.com/DemFromCT/status/1312131078157524992 …
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Cluster. It was bound to happen.https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1312085226370334720 …
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A superspreading event. They have to trace this back asap.https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/1312214949658152960 …
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There was an indoor component to the event. But we definitely need more information. More in the cluster.https://twitter.com/HowardKurtz/status/1312200574067068930 …
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One more senator. This is how a cluster works, and these people are tested heavily. Imagine this cluster without access to testing, igniting more clusters. That’s the catastrophic process my article has been trying to explain, and the one we should gear up to avoid.https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1312378700818722822 …
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If UK was late to notice because they ran out of columns in EXCEL, this is an indescribable failure. Excel screw-ups are known & numerous. No researcher should rely on Excel. Plus, with overdispersion, late is catastrophic because clusters ignite clusters.https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1313046638915706880 …
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So the White House is not doing backward contact tracing—as they should—to figure out how the cluster started? They’ll miss cases.https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1313297693054316546 …
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So is this part of the White House cluster? Probably so, right?https://twitter.com/KFaulders/status/1313522445731745792 …
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Anyone proposing Sweden as a contrarian example has *no idea* what they're talking about. Sweden had a more strict & early indoor gathering limit than most of Europe, never lifted it when others did & everyone 16+ is in virtual school. Japan! Try Japan! https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …pic.twitter.com/rguHxKsJXo
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March: Bartender infected as Austrian ski resort. Medical authorities: "A transmission of the virus onto the guests of the bar is, from a medical point of view, rather unlikely." Reality:~6000 infections in 45 countries. (March in Japan: hunting clusters.)https://www.france24.com/en/20201009-documents-suggest-virus-was-downplayed-at-austria-resort …
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Canada allows indoor spin class with lower capacity, six-foot radius around bikes and sanitation. So panting crowd indoors but, hey, on clean bikes! Go ahead, require throwing salt over one's shoulder and hang a
. Index patient had no symptoms: 51 cases. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/10/13/patient-zero-displayed-no-symptoms-hamiltons-spinco-superspreader-outbreak-reaches-51-cases.html …pic.twitter.com/FN0PItiKzk
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Ah, even better. You don't have to wear your mask in gyms in Canada when it *actually* counts the most. Brilliant. Look, folks, I'll say it straight out. United States and most of Europe have lost sight of the science of this pandemic. Inexcusable.https://twitter.com/benjamintdube/status/1316027523432542208 …
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Yep. I have a CO2/VOC monitor I've been using to see how things are. Places are *drowning* in bleach etc. The people doing the cleaning—low-paid women—are breathing in enormous amounts of harmful stuff unnecessarily, and then we are (I measure it).https://twitter.com/akm5376/status/1316027790160928771 …
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Movie theaters (silent patrons wearing masks) are almost certainly much safer than spin classes indoors with unmasked panting exercisers, even with the "sanitation" and "reduced capacity" and "six feet between bikes" blah blah nonsense.https://twitter.com/BAmontanada/status/1316029238001037315 …
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March, 2020: "Let's wear masks for a respiratory disease". "NOOO, they are harmful." Evidence? *crickets* October, 2020: "Let's drown everything in bleach and disinfectants!" Wait, there's tons of evidence this isn't that safe or necessary. *crickets* https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2753247 …pic.twitter.com/7imhfQSyI7
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It's not just a mathematical curiosity; it has big practical consequences. Also in the article.


