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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      COVID has a very skewed distribution in its transmission patterns. You can't beat back a threat if you don't take into account how it operates, and this skew—its overdispersion— should affect the way we do *everything* from tracing to testing. That's what countries like Japan do.

      14 replies 183 retweets 1,049 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      Folks asking me if this skew—that a few account for most infections while most don't transmit—is due to the people & what it means. That's all in the article.😃 It's not just a mathematical curiosity; it has big practical consequences. Also in the article.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …

      21 replies 273 retweets 1,042 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      Wow. New paper from India, tracing ~500K contacts for ~85,000 cases. They did not find a single positive contact for 70.7% of infected people. Zero! About 5% accounted for 80% of transmission—not in my piece because it's out today! That's overdispersion. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672.full …pic.twitter.com/w5rdctMu4V

      22 replies 423 retweets 1,363 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      Look, the science doesn't fit into the lockdown/anti-lockdown fights. It's not how much we restrict, but whether we target the right things. Overdispersion means the right measures take us a long way, but also that we can't relax: It can quickly flip back. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …pic.twitter.com/hGe1ug1YVP

      17 replies 394 retweets 1,155 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Justin Fox

      See this thread for some great early pieces (some I link to in my piece) explaining the importance of superspreading and overdispersion, and if you want, also take a look at Japan or Hong Kong early epi documents. We're so slow to learn from the evidence.https://twitter.com/foxjust/status/1311352169896071169 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Justin FoxVerified account @foxjust
      Replying to @karlbykarlsmith
      Hey I wrote that in May! (although this version is more complete and, like everything by @zeynep, pretty great) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-28/superspreader-events-might-actually-help-control-covid-19 …
      7 replies 70 retweets 418 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      Also, if you suspect that I went to the trouble of writing ~5000 words on overdispersion so I could type "the mean is not the message", I admit nothing. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …pic.twitter.com/0pzV7h2ALa

      20 replies 116 retweets 1,002 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Justin Ling

      Described as dense but incredibly interesting=life goal✅😃https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1311336869968445442 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Justin LingVerified account @Justin_Ling
      A dense read, but incredibly interesting. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …
      8 replies 22 retweets 498 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Robot Archie 🇪🇺 💙

      Then again, the number of people who assume that I just "discovered" skewed distributions or the Pareto principle this month has been pretty impressive, too. Always makes me wonder if men get the article they just wrote explained back to them this much?🤔https://twitter.com/RobotArchie/status/1311456542047326214 …?

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Robot Archie 🇪🇺 💙 @RobotArchie
      Always nice to watch someone new discover the 80/20 rule https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1311329981419728898 …
      23 replies 42 retweets 785 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      This example is exactly why we should do more backward tracing for a superspreading pandemic. It means, mathematically, “who infected you” can be a more productive question then “who did you contact since becoming infected”—forward tracing. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ … ht @reillyhay https://twitter.com/kj_seung/status/1311443956656492548 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      17 replies 237 retweets 696 likes
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    10. Jody Shenn‏ @JodyShenn 30 Sep 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      I liked that you had nuance in the discussion of hairdressers btw

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020
      Replying to @JodyShenn

      Thank you!

      8:00 PM - 30 Sep 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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