Is there a disconnect between the frequency of large outbreaks from single events in Asia (where many of the estimates are from) and US/Europe? My sense is that contact tracing in the US and Europe is not attributing most transmission to super-spreading.https://twitter.com/joel_mossong/status/1299092131353591808 …
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Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep
This is not at all to say that overdispersion doesn't matter. But, for example, overdispersion could also be tied individual characteristics (biology and behavior).
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Replying to @WesPegden
The contact-tracing in Western countries is mostly lousy, and a pity because we could learn so much more. I do write how overdispersion could need the trifecta: super-emitter + infection timing/trajectory + indoor/crowd/bad ventilation. But only the last is under our control atm.
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Replying to @zeynep
All I mean to suggest is that, say, the overall role currently played in the U.S./Europe by events with (say) 10 infections in one event seems very uncertain. (Obviously for early stochastic timing this is probably much more relevant.) 1/2
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Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep
For example my county typically sees between 50 and 100 cases per day. I have no doubt the tracing is limited here, but it's been like that day after day and there have been few reports I can remember of large clusters of infections. 2/2
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Replying to @WesPegden
Out today for India... Still reading but seems 71% of tracing leaded to no transmissions; about 5 percent responsible for 80 percent of transmission events.https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672.full …
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Replying to @zeynep
I'm not questioning the over-dispersion at all, and that most people transmit to no one. Notice the log scale in this plot in this paper (from Figure 2), showing the counts of people who had 0 infected contacts, 1 infected contact, and so on.pic.twitter.com/HQ3zbQ6rIO
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Replying to @WesPegden
Yep. Also
@svscarpino had a really cool way of describing the flip between "flu mode", which sounds like your county, and back. Superspreading under control (likely through NPI), R near 1ish, but enough community spread to keep sustaining for a bit. But one unlucky event away.1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes -
Also brings back another
@dylanhmorris point: getting the *number* of infections low is really helpful, especially if accompanied by superspreading targeted NPI because it allows for cluster-busting. I think US/EU shows how contact-tracing breaks once in outbreak mode.1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @WesPegden and
Your last sentence makes me think you may find our recent preprint interesting. Thanks for all your work btw!https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.14.20194159v1.article-metrics …
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I hadn’t seen that! Will read.
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