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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      ❗️Did you know that *study after study* finds most people don't seem to transmit COVID at all? That a small percent is responsible for almost all infections? That R is not that informative? My new piece on why this may be key to controlling the pandemic. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …pic.twitter.com/veHa1BRwMO

      343 replies 4,508 retweets 10,986 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      COVID has a very skewed distribution in its transmission patterns. You can't beat back a threat if you don't take into account how it operates, and this skew—its overdispersion— should affect the way we do *everything* from tracing to testing. That's what countries like Japan do.

      14 replies 183 retweets 1,049 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

      Folks asking me if this skew—that a few account for most infections while most don't transmit—is due to the people & what it means. That's all in the article.😃 It's not just a mathematical curiosity; it has big practical consequences. Also in the article.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …

      9:04 AM - 30 Sep 2020
      • 273 Retweets
      • 1,042 Likes
      • Yorgos H ml66uk Mary Rowe aa 🍦dangscoop 🥝🥬Stabiler Blumenkuebel🥝🥬 Shreoshee Mukherjee Greg Jordan-Detamore Pete Blackman
      21 replies 273 retweets 1,042 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

          Wow. New paper from India, tracing ~500K contacts for ~85,000 cases. They did not find a single positive contact for 70.7% of infected people. Zero! About 5% accounted for 80% of transmission—not in my piece because it's out today! That's overdispersion. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672.full …pic.twitter.com/w5rdctMu4V

          22 replies 423 retweets 1,363 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

          Look, the science doesn't fit into the lockdown/anti-lockdown fights. It's not how much we restrict, but whether we target the right things. Overdispersion means the right measures take us a long way, but also that we can't relax: It can quickly flip back. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …pic.twitter.com/hGe1ug1YVP

          17 replies 394 retweets 1,155 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Justin Fox

          See this thread for some great early pieces (some I link to in my piece) explaining the importance of superspreading and overdispersion, and if you want, also take a look at Japan or Hong Kong early epi documents. We're so slow to learn from the evidence.https://twitter.com/foxjust/status/1311352169896071169 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Justin FoxVerified account @foxjust
          Replying to @karlbykarlsmith
          Hey I wrote that in May! (although this version is more complete and, like everything by @zeynep, pretty great) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-28/superspreader-events-might-actually-help-control-covid-19 …
          7 replies 70 retweets 418 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

          Also, if you suspect that I went to the trouble of writing ~5000 words on overdispersion so I could type "the mean is not the message", I admit nothing. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …pic.twitter.com/0pzV7h2ALa

          20 replies 116 retweets 1,002 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Justin Ling

          Described as dense but incredibly interesting=life goal✅😃https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1311336869968445442 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Justin LingVerified account @Justin_Ling
          A dense read, but incredibly interesting. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …
          8 replies 22 retweets 498 likes
          Show this thread
        7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Robot Archie 🇪🇺 💙

          Then again, the number of people who assume that I just "discovered" skewed distributions or the Pareto principle this month has been pretty impressive, too. Always makes me wonder if men get the article they just wrote explained back to them this much?🤔https://twitter.com/RobotArchie/status/1311456542047326214 …?

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Robot Archie 🇪🇺 💙 @RobotArchie
          Always nice to watch someone new discover the 80/20 rule https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1311329981419728898 …
          23 replies 42 retweets 785 likes
          Show this thread
        8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Sep 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted

          This example is exactly why we should do more backward tracing for a superspreading pandemic. It means, mathematically, “who infected you” can be a more productive question then “who did you contact since becoming infected”—forward tracing. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ … ht @reillyhay https://twitter.com/kj_seung/status/1311443956656492548 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          17 replies 237 retweets 696 likes
          Show this thread
        9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted christa teston

          The why of superspreading isn't fully settled. I do have more about it in my article on the importance of ventilation from July. Crowded, poorly-ventilated indoors is a common factor, though individual variation is also plausible. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ …https://twitter.com/christateston/status/1311653698490294272 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          christa teston @christateston
          Replying to @zeynep
          24 hours later and I’m still thinking about your piece. A thing I’m worried about is: conflating two different (but interactive) mechanisms: the so-called super spreader human and/or the contextual circumstances that resulted in them being a super spreader in the first place.
          9 replies 38 retweets 232 likes
          Show this thread
        10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Oct 2020

          I'm getting many questions on superspreading. My July article on ventilation has details on what we know of the science, but there *is* a tl;dr: Let's focus on Japan's 3C: avoid closed (indoor) spaces with crowds, especially at close range and/or unmasked. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ …pic.twitter.com/zylUPsnv4N

          7 replies 121 retweets 343 likes
          Show this thread
        11. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Oct 2020

          Much gratitude to @svscarpino, @AdamJKucharski, @mugecevik, @dylanhmorris & @nataliexdean who are quoted and to many others whose papers I read, and to Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani who patiently answers my Japan questions and to @miekocakes who has been a tireless translator & bridge!

          4 replies 8 retweets 140 likes
          Show this thread
        12. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Oct 2020

          Also, my sense from years of writing on the messy, complicated topic of technology and society, and now about the pandemic science/sociology intersection: There is a real demand for factual, dense and long pieces that don't simplify or cut corners, but do try to stay readable.

          10 replies 43 retweets 526 likes
          Show this thread
        13. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Oct 2020

          It's not that I or anyone else can get everything right all the time (nobody can; anyone thinking out loud on complex topics will miss things or get things wrong) but that we can and we should try to dive into it all, with all the complexity, and treat the public as partners. 🙏

          10 replies 42 retweets 361 likes
          Show this thread
        14. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Chip Uni

          Yes! As I explain in my piece, the polarization around Sweden is not useful because Sweden is a middling country—not that lax but also not great. It's not an example of success OR failure of herd immunity or lockdowns. Japan, though, is *very* interesting.https://twitter.com/chip_uni/status/1311727369086922757 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Chip Uni @chip_uni
          An article in The Atlantic by @zeynep changed how I think about COVID-19. The disease is likely spread by fewer, super-spreading events, and Japan might have had the optimal response to the disease. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/?utm_source=pocket-newtab …
          10 replies 63 retweets 274 likes
          Show this thread
        15. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          As explained in my overdispersion piece, if there are two transmission events (both the President and the First Lady) there are likely more. Also see my earlier piece about airborne transmission: indoors, six feet isn't enough and the *talker* can infect. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ …pic.twitter.com/AaodjKT7RO

          8 replies 118 retweets 361 likes
          Show this thread
        16. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted The New York Times

          This pathogen can be surprisingly non-contagious most of the time... But when it strikes, it's often in clusters. So they may well have a cluster on their hands.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1312024557356806145 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          The New York TimesVerified account @nytimes
          Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, has tested positive for the coronavirus and is experiencing mild symptoms, according to multiple people briefed on the situation. https://nyti.ms/2Sm8jrr 
          12 replies 89 retweets 317 likes
          Show this thread
        17. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jon Levy

          The cost of not following the science. The CDC still has not (re)posted updated airborne transmission guidelines, and WHO still has not updated their documents for the public. DISTANCE IS NOT PROTECTIVE ENOUGH INDOORS. Ventilate, filter, mask up.https://twitter.com/jonlevyBU/status/1311976244553101313 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Jon Levy @jonlevyBU
          I pray that the debate “health and safety protocols” included ventilation and filtration, even though they were not listed by the Cleveland Clinic. I don’t know who was positive when, but unmasked yelling in a poorly ventilated space is a high risk situation. pic.twitter.com/SD7iyhTah2
          4 replies 151 retweets 419 likes
          Show this thread
        18. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tracy Austin kept noticing my legs.

          Yes. The authorities should never have let anyone—no matter their position—tour hospitals unmasked in violation of their own rules. The debate commission should have stood its ground. The WHO and the CDC should have listened to the scientists. So it goes.https://twitter.com/spin4srv/status/1312027812551970818 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Tracy Austin kept noticing my legs. @spin4srv
          Replying to @TopherSpiro @zeynep
          The Commission on Debates should not have allowed the debate to start until all parties were obeying the rules and wearing masks. Should have just sat there ON EVERY TV CHANNEL until those people put on a goddamn mask.
          7 replies 110 retweets 546 likes
          Show this thread
        19. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          Yes, the Trump campaign was flouting the guidelines. But the current guidelines we do have from the CDC and the WHO are not enough to protect Biden. Such failure puts at risk people who do follow the rules. Indoors, distance alone IS NOT enough to prevent airborne transmission.

          8 replies 86 retweets 378 likes
          Show this thread
        20. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Mike Lee

          It looks increasingly like a cluster. The key question will be if they all got infected from the same source/event. With all this, it would be irresponsible not to quarantine almost everyone in the White House and the Senate. Tests can need days to detect.https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1312055257992753152 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Mike LeeVerified account @SenMikeLee
          pic.twitter.com/V3kSLogoDP
          24 replies 299 retweets 791 likes
          Show this thread
        21. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Henry J. Gomez

          No word on ventilation, no mention that distance isn't protective enough indoors, and no enforcing of masks. This is why the lack of CDC guidelines on airborne transmission matter. WHO docs still say no masks necessary indoors if separated by three feet!https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1312058477758603265 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Henry J. GomezVerified account @HenryJGomez
          Statement from the Cleveland Clinic on the positive tests of Trump and others at Tuesday’s debate. pic.twitter.com/xwRCqBBrRr
          15 replies 105 retweets 375 likes
          Show this thread
        22. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Mike Lee

          Indoors. Unmasked. Talking.https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1311064032300929038 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Mike LeeVerified account @SenMikeLee
          I was remarkably impressed by Judge Barrett. My meeting with her was fantastic. She is a judge, a legal scholar, and a lawyer with outstanding credentials. We had a great conversation and I am very much looking forward to speaking with her more during her confirmation hearing. pic.twitter.com/rfGt717PlW
          6 replies 53 retweets 320 likes
          Show this thread
        23. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jack Jenkins

          Cluster looking more and more likely.https://twitter.com/jackmjenkins/status/1312068942157025280 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Jack JenkinsVerified account @jackmjenkins
          BREAKING: Notre Dame President Fr. John Jenkins, who was at the WH SCOTUS announcement on Saturday and was criticized for not wearing a mask and shaking hands, has tested positive for COVID-19. This was just sent out to the campus. Unclear if he had it during the WH event. pic.twitter.com/2cR4eaVMzb
          Show this thread
          17 replies 164 retweets 540 likes
          Show this thread
        24. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brian Stelter

          Cluster. K. Overdispersion. Airborne. Backward tracing. (Words and concepts we need the talk more about.)https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1312079653486632961 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Brian StelterVerified account @brianstelter
          News: I have obtained a memo from the @WHCA board to WH reporters with word of "two additional cases of COVID-19 at the White House." A journalist received a preliminary positive result. And a WH staffer who sits in the "lower press" area received a confirmed positive result.
          Show this thread
          11 replies 77 retweets 338 likes
          Show this thread
        25. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Greg Dworkin

          Yes, finally! For details on why this is important, see my article on aerosol/airborne transmission. https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614737/ …https://twitter.com/DemFromCT/status/1312131078157524992 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Greg DworkinVerified account @DemFromCT
          notice that Biden is delivering the speech with a mask that's how it should be. The speaker is the one aerosolizing. @zeynep
          7 replies 63 retweets 309 likes
          Show this thread
        26. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Robert Costa

          Cluster. It was bound to happen.https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1312085226370334720 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Robert CostaVerified account @costareports
          Per 2 WH officials and a conservative ally outside the WH who was present, there were at least two private gatherings/receptions last Sat. around ACB announcement, one in the Cabinet room and another in Diplomatic Reception Room. Very little distancing, few masks. Lots of VIPs.
          5 replies 55 retweets 277 likes
          Show this thread
        27. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Kellyanne Conway

          A superspreading event. They have to trace this back asap.https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/1312214949658152960 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Kellyanne ConwayVerified account @KellyannePolls
          Tonight I tested positive for COVID-19. My symptoms are mild (light cough) and I’m feeling fine. I have begun a quarantine process in consultation with physicians. As always, my heart is with everyone affected by this global pandemic. ❤️
          12 replies 125 retweets 455 likes
          Show this thread
        28. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted HowardKurtz

          There was an indoor component to the event. But we definitely need more information. More in the cluster.https://twitter.com/HowardKurtz/status/1312200574067068930 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          HowardKurtzVerified account @HowardKurtz
          Three White House reporters, including my old colleague Mike Shear of the NYT, have tested positive for the virus. They have either traveled with Trump or covered WH events with crowds of mostly unmasked people
          9 replies 24 retweets 217 likes
          Show this thread
        29. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ed O'Keefe

          One more senator. This is how a cluster works, and these people are tested heavily. Imagine this cluster without access to testing, igniting more clusters. That’s the catastrophic process my article has been trying to explain, and the one we should gear up to avoid.https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1312378700818722822 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Ed O'KeefeVerified account @edokeefe
          JUST IN: @SenRonJohnson tests positive for #COVID19, his office says: pic.twitter.com/McjM4G1wHu
          8 replies 122 retweets 413 likes
          Show this thread
        30. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Max Roser

          If UK was late to notice because they ran out of columns in EXCEL, this is an indescribable failure. Excel screw-ups are known & numerous. No researcher should rely on Excel. Plus, with overdispersion, late is catastrophic because clusters ignite clusters.https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1313046638915706880 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Max RoserVerified account @MaxCRoser
          In the UK the number of cases rose rapidly. But the public – and authorities – are only learning this now because these cases were only published now as a backlog. The reason was apparently that the database is managed in Excel and the number of columns had reached the maximum. pic.twitter.com/X4a8keSEHK
          Show this thread
          10 replies 75 retweets 252 likes
          Show this thread
        31. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Oct 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Josh Michaud

          So the White House is not doing backward contact tracing—as they should—to figure out how the cluster started? They’ll miss cases.https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1313297693054316546 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Josh MichaudVerified account @joshmich
          Here we can see the difference between retrospective and prospective contact tracing. The WH is saying it is doing prospective tracing, but doesn't need to to retrospective tracing. https://twitter.com/BMorgenstern45/status/1313268015388127232 …
          Show this thread
          12 replies 51 retweets 218 likes
          Show this thread
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