According to this preprint, Tokyo reached an est. 46.8% seroprevalence this summer. The city has had a total of 391 deaths from COVID-19. This would suggest an infinitesimal fatality rate—twice the spread of New York and a tiny fraction of its IFR. (1/2)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1 …
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It would also suggest that Japan's success in controlling the pandemic may have considerably less to do with policy measures — the country never shut down, though it was early to mask wearing and social-distancing guidelines — than with the susceptibility of the population. (2/2)
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Replying to @dwallacewells
Interesting but, it's one company in multiple locations, not Tokyo. A single cluster could account for the whole result. We know some places have high prevalence but to get there within one month with zero outward sign? Need details, and an actual random(ish) study.
2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
Agree about the shortcomings, and would add the sample size is relatively small.
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Replying to @dwallacewells @zeynep
Possibly the widespread mask-wearing led to a variolation effect? Or just a cluster as
@zeynep says1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
I don’t know. Going from about 5% to 50% undetected in Tokyo in the space of basically a month is a remarkable claim. Lucky for us it’s such an extraordinary claim that it should be repeatable in a single day. Test a hundred, almost anywhere.
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