According to this preprint, Tokyo reached an est. 46.8% seroprevalence this summer. The city has had a total of 391 deaths from COVID-19. This would suggest an infinitesimal fatality rate—twice the spread of New York and a tiny fraction of its IFR. (1/2)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1 …
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It would also suggest that Japan's success in controlling the pandemic may have considerably less to do with policy measures — the country never shut down, though it was early to mask wearing and social-distancing guidelines — than with the susceptibility of the population. (2/2)
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Replying to @dwallacewells
Interesting but, it's one company in multiple locations, not Tokyo. A single cluster could account for the whole result. We know some places have high prevalence but to get there within one month with zero outward sign? Need details, and an actual random(ish) study.
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If you look at the numbers, at a time that *all* of Japan was finding a few hundred cases total, they are claiming about a thousand total cases (for that month) in that company, with hundreds per week. I mean, that's a huge huge claim. Okay, maybe but really need details, repeat.
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