Everyone should—obviously—consider their own personal risk factors and if they should travel as risk is never zero. Taking a cab to the airport is always risky! However instead of alarm based on single studies, we need careful consideration of nine months of data & observations.
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Media continues to fail COVID reporting hard. *Of course* it can spread anywhere. The most important question is the *denominator*, protections and relative risk. Two incidents from March with unmasked, coughing passengers. If that were all, that would be immensely reassuring.pic.twitter.com/QiKVtZcMo2
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For flying, the real questions: Why are there almost zero outbreaks, so strikingly low that the cab ride to the airport is many times more dangerous *if* the number is true. Is it because we're not tracing enough? Is it because of masks plus aggressive air filtering on planes?
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Replying to @zeynep
Related: Iceland currently screens all arrivals twice. First upon arrival, then again following a 5 day quarantine. The number of cases found in the second screening is well above zero, which suggests people are indeed getting sick on the way (incl. airport, taxis, buses).
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You can see raw numbers at https://www.covid.is/data , look for the "Number cumulative" donut which shows Active cases separated into 1st and 2nd screening.
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Replying to @HerraBRE
Though test on arrival isn't enough to eliminate people getting infected the two-three days before they even get on the bus/taxi/terminal part of the trip, let alone the plane ride. Amazing data though, so few infections in the 2nd screening. Only 25 since June 15. Wow. So few.
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Replying to @zeynep
We don't have a huge amount of incoming traffic to begin with. We're tiny!
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I think that one way to read this, is that the folks caught in the 1st screening, are likely to be the ones that infected the ones caught in the second. More or less. That gives insight into the rate of spread during travel, but of course airplanes are only a part.
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Replying to @HerraBRE
Fascinating. There's probably both: groups already infected traveling together but some don't yet test positive OR someone in group infects others. The denominator is 144,437 so total of 25 cases max and it includes prior co-infection plus all phases of travel. Surprisingly tiny.pic.twitter.com/wqSS4LeUdu
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Replying to @zeynep
The inputs are pre-filtered somewhat - as we are part of the Schengen area most folks from the U.S. won't even be let on the plane.
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Makes sense! I wish we had such data. Jealous here. Looks very good for Iceland though.
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Replying to @zeynep
We're actually having a "third wave" outbreak *right now*, but overall I consider us extremely lucky and am happy with how it's managed here. I'm confident we will get it back under control.
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