Obviously, there is no place that's absolutely, completely safe from COVID if there are people around, but in reality, the lack of outbreaks in airplanes is quite striking, and quite likely linked to the fact that they aggressively and rapidly filter the air with HEPA filters.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Joseph Allen
Also, this is a pity. If we had genomic sequencing, we'd have a clear-cut answer. Given the importance of these questions, there really needs to be more resources for such case studies.https://twitter.com/j_g_allen/status/1307283825043660800 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Everyone should—obviously—consider their own personal risk factors and if they should travel as risk is never zero. Taking a cab to the airport is always risky! However instead of alarm based on single studies, we need careful consideration of nine months of data & observations.
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Media continues to fail COVID reporting hard. *Of course* it can spread anywhere. The most important question is the *denominator*, protections and relative risk. Two incidents from March with unmasked, coughing passengers. If that were all, that would be immensely reassuring.pic.twitter.com/QiKVtZcMo2
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For flying, the real questions: Why are there almost zero outbreaks, so strikingly low that the cab ride to the airport is many times more dangerous *if* the number is true. Is it because we're not tracing enough? Is it because of masks plus aggressive air filtering on planes?
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Replying to @zeynep
Related: Iceland currently screens all arrivals twice. First upon arrival, then again following a 5 day quarantine. The number of cases found in the second screening is well above zero, which suggests people are indeed getting sick on the way (incl. airport, taxis, buses).
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You can see raw numbers at https://www.covid.is/data , look for the "Number cumulative" donut which shows Active cases separated into 1st and 2nd screening.
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Replying to @HerraBRE
Though test on arrival isn't enough to eliminate people getting infected the two-three days before they even get on the bus/taxi/terminal part of the trip, let alone the plane ride. Amazing data though, so few infections in the 2nd screening. Only 25 since June 15. Wow. So few.
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Replying to @zeynep
We don't have a huge amount of incoming traffic to begin with. We're tiny!
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I think that one way to read this, is that the folks caught in the 1st screening, are likely to be the ones that infected the ones caught in the second. More or less. That gives insight into the rate of spread during travel, but of course airplanes are only a part.
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Fascinating. There's probably both: groups already infected traveling together but some don't yet test positive OR someone in group infects others. The denominator is 144,437 so total of 25 cases max and it includes prior co-infection plus all phases of travel. Surprisingly tiny.pic.twitter.com/wqSS4LeUdu
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Replying to @zeynep
The inputs are pre-filtered somewhat - as we are part of the Schengen area most folks from the U.S. won't even be let on the plane.
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Replying to @HerraBRE
Makes sense! I wish we had such data. Jealous here. Looks very good for Iceland though.
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