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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @DKThomp

      Yes but... the errors are correlated. There was a lot of analysis like this about Clinton, too, in 2016 (not saying the setup is the same) and.. Yeah, the errors are correlated. If PA moves to Trump, so will many other things and it is no longer narrow.

      3 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
    3. Karl Smith‏Verified account @karlbykarlsmith 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @DKThomp

      The snake implies that. Indeed, taken at face value it suggests the correlation is one. If Penn moves it drags everything behind it.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 17 Sep 2020
      Replying to @karlbykarlsmith @DKThomp

      No, no the snake implies they come one at a time like a snake's body! If they move, because something is pushing them all, they will not move like a snake. Many states may well move all at once, and depending on what's pushing the snake, the order with which they tip will change.

      5:48 AM - 17 Sep 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 17 Sep 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @karlbykarlsmith @DKThomp

          The snake is: ceteris paribus, here is how they line up with current polls. For the sake of the argument, assume there is a shy Trump voter. (Not claiming; for illustration). Those errors will be correlated with many states, but not necessarily in order of current polling.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Karl Smith‏Verified account @karlbykarlsmith 17 Sep 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @DKThomp

          They don't need to be correlated with the polling order only with one another. So, for example, if 2% of all voters in all states are shy then the snake slides in unison. In that scenario, we have perfect correlation across states but zero correlation with the current ordering

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Karl Smith‏Verified account @karlbykarlsmith 17 Sep 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @DKThomp

          Based on your next post I am guessing you realized this but a snakes body must come (more or less) all at once or else it tears. Order changing implies they don't come all at once hence a reordering of body sections which is not (easily) done to a real snake

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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