Well, maybe. It depends on what error it is. In 2016, the general contributing error was oversampling of college educated voters in white voter subsamples. Education weighting in 2020 aims to alleviate that. It could happen similarly but also could be an error with no covariance.
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But the same thing goes the other way too. If Biden is winning Texas then he's probably blowing everything else out in other areas too. Which is why Nate's team applies very large uncertainty bands in his 2020 model compared to 2016.
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The snake implies that. Indeed, taken at face value it suggests the correlation is one. If Penn moves it drags everything behind it.
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+1 bump
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Thank you! It's depressing, but not surprising, to still see these awe-shucks armchair takes from the media.
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