Since @FiveThirtyEight released its model today, I can finally tweet: I think it’s weird that so many people seem to blame 538, specifically, for failing to predict Trump’s win. They started seriously warning of a popular/electoral split in September 2016, before other observers.
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Replying to @yayitsrob @FiveThirtyEight
On the one hand, others were way worse. On the other hand, the 538 presentation was terrible and misleading. Visually, it suggested a landslide (because people are used to polls, not probability models) and many crucial details were in footnotes (I read; how many else did?).
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I don't think the info there if you could get past the high-impact visuals, a lifetime of being used to polls (where 70/30 is a landslide), and get to the detail and significance of of correlated errors in a footnote is a good defense. But 538 was the best among a terrible crowd.
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