Since @FiveThirtyEight released its model today, I can finally tweet: I think it’s weird that so many people seem to blame 538, specifically, for failing to predict Trump’s win. They started seriously warning of a popular/electoral split in September 2016, before other observers.
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I'm not a 538 defender but it is not their fault if people refuse to listen to nuanced analysis.
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That is not a defense if you are that high-profile in the business of communicating to the public and where the consequences are so important. Others are worse (very true!) is also not a defense. So so so many people made consequential decisions based on refreshing that page.
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I don't think the info there if you could get past the high-impact visuals, a lifetime of being used to polls (where 70/30 is a landslide), and get to the detail and significance of of correlated errors in a footnote is a good defense. But 538 was the best among a terrible crowd.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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