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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      And yet, if you are caught in a superspreading event you are surely exposed to a higher risk of infection. And the persistence of the virus in the population suggests such events must be important 8/n

      2 replies 7 retweets 25 likes
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    2. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      The risk of transmission, and the risk by different routes varies over the course of infection. For most of the time I think it is probably pretty low 9/n

      1 reply 3 retweets 21 likes
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    3. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      However the existence of superspreading events show that for *enough* it has to be super high. And I find it hard to explain these without a short-lived capacity for airborne transmission 10/n

      1 reply 10 retweets 36 likes
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    4. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      And it is widely agreed that such superspreading events are essential components of the transmission dynamics so... ? 11/n

      1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
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    5. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      I think that transmission risk is low other than at the point of peak viral loads, which usually happens earlier in infection. I *think* that airborne transmission may happen from at least a fraction of people at that stage. How many they infect depends on how many contacts 12/n

      3 replies 5 retweets 42 likes
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    6. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      What does this mean? Well first I want to be clear that this is an opinion based on what I see in the data. But I cannot find a way to get "overdispersed R0 driving things" into my head without a role for the mode of transmission that drives that over dispersion 13/n

      1 reply 2 retweets 34 likes
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    7. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      But for crying out loud, this indicates also the importance of freaking distancing. If you aint there, you're not gonna be the infected or infectee. So distance and find ways to maintain it! (👈🏽sorry I truly appreciate this is hard but it is also not my wheel house) 14/n

      1 reply 20 retweets 98 likes
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    8. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 8 Aug 2020

      in conclusion we are almost where we were, but hopefully recognizing the importance of an overdispersed reproductive number and what may well be driving it. Distancing, testing and tracing remain crucial. Take care of yourselves, and others x 15/end

      8 replies 3 retweets 54 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Aug 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage

      I'd add is that overdispersion plus short-range aerosols do modify some recommendations (masks indoors no matter distance) and adds a few new ones (ventilate; speaker should remain masked etc.). These are not currently in guidelines. I wrote about it here:https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ …

      2 replies 16 retweets 34 likes
    10. Ian‏ @IanStockport 9 Aug 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage

      "Speaker remaining masked" has a very high socal cost as it makes it much harder for many to understand.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Aug 2020
      Replying to @IanStockport @BillHanage

      Indeed. But once you identify what needs the happen, and the problem—the high social cost—we can think about what we need to do. Design proper face-shields (neck seal?)/transparent masks with sufficient filtration is one obvious step. May be expensive, but okay for only speaker.

      6:44 AM - 9 Aug 2020
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      2 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
        1. Ian‏ @IanStockport 9 Aug 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage

          Indoor pubs/bars where masks are removed to drink by everyone and noice levels often making shouting normal concerns me a lot more then one person speaking at an event without a mask.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Nurit Baytch‏ @NuritBaytch 9 Aug 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @IanStockport @BillHanage

          a plastic face shield with a neck seal would be suffocating but you can see a dr wearing a powered air purifying respirator with a neck seal here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/us/coronavirus-houston-new-york.html …

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Aug 2020
          Replying to @NuritBaytch @IanStockport @BillHanage

          Not a full seal, obviously! A filter.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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