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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Aug 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      This is a good, nuanced thread on herd immunity (which is hard to discuss on social media tbh as it invites a knee-jerk reactions). All these numbers—Rt, HIT, CFR—vary with non-pharmaceutical interventions. They’re not fixed. But also: why don’t we have a randomized serosurvey?https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860666945384448 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      Here, we expect Rt will equal R0 ⨉ fraction of the population susceptible ⨉ relative social connectivity. If R0 is 2.5 and social connectivity is 56% of normal then realized Rt will be 1.4. In this case, the herd immune threshold would be 29%. 8/16 pic.twitter.com/AzMDXbIGxS
      Show this thread
      8 replies 60 retweets 213 likes
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 8 Aug 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Properly randomized and longitudinal serosurveys would be hugely helpful. Especially for age groups. And yes, didn't expect it to be so controversial to say that with 10% immunity and strong NPIs dropping Rt we expect some effect of immunity in reducing spread.

      3 replies 4 retweets 51 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Aug 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      Indeed. Your point is excellent, but also straightforward. Though as I said, I expected the reaction. It seems that herd immunity has become associated with “let them die till ~70% seroconversion” and it’s hard for people to see HIT isn’t a fixed number but subject to NPIs.

      3 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Aug 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @trvrb

      But thank you for speaking up on this because it’s important for people to realize that HIT is very subject to behavioral intervention. There are a lot of false claims that what we’re seeing is solely from seroconversion, and that’s being used to promote recklessness. Dangerous.

      2:06 PM - 8 Aug 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 27 Likes
      • Edgar Halliwax Verity Pace 🌐 Joxy David Doborjginidze Graeme Wood M Rowold Brendan Colvert erithaco 🌛 catherine cooke
      1 reply 5 retweets 27 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Yeah. I was definitely seeing this. A substantial fraction of responses was: the HIT is actually 20% and not 60% (due to heterogeneity and/or T cells?) and another fraction was: you're wrong, HIT is 60%. We need a non-political understanding of why epidemics wax and wane.

          2 replies 4 retweets 31 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @trvrb

          Yep! You hit both (incorrect) sides of the herd immunity debate: Equation with inevitable mass death of millions vs. it's already here through seroconversion. And they both often hold Sweden to be their own example! And yes wave discussion, painful but necessary, is also hard.

          2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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