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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Aug 2020

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Trevor Bedford

    This is a good, nuanced thread on herd immunity (which is hard to discuss on social media tbh as it invites a knee-jerk reactions). All these numbers—Rt, HIT, CFR—vary with non-pharmaceutical interventions. They’re not fixed. But also: why don’t we have a randomized serosurvey?https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860666945384448 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
    Here, we expect Rt will equal R0 ⨉ fraction of the population susceptible ⨉ relative social connectivity. If R0 is 2.5 and social connectivity is 56% of normal then realized Rt will be 1.4. In this case, the herd immune threshold would be 29%. 8/16 pic.twitter.com/AzMDXbIGxS
    Show this thread
    8:36 PM - 7 Aug 2020
    • 60 Retweets
    • 213 Likes
    • Δημήτρης Δαλαγιώργος Larry Stevens Tom Joad Fred Blau Hanzi Deschermeier katybee 🐝#SafeEdForAll #MaskUp 🐝 rahuldave Alex Abdo Byrd
    8 replies 60 retweets 213 likes
      1. The End Times‏ @TheAgeofShoddy 7 Aug 2020
        Replying to @zeynep @jonst0kes

        Between the failure to create effective test and trace infrastructure and opening plans, or deliver clear messaging, or get a second relief bill together, it becomes increasingly clear that trying to stop daily life is the only tool those in power really care to use.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. Prof‏ @covidtweets 7 Aug 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Prof Retweeted Prof

        "social connectivity is 56% of normal" - 56% of NYC can be %300 of a town in Idaho. Why do we still pretend that innate social connectivity is irrelevant?https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1277276132988145664 …

        Prof added,

        Prof @covidtweets
        Replying to @boriquagato
        Let's imagine there are two towns, one in which nobody ever interacts with each other, and another where everyone is living inside the same household. In the first, HIT would be 0% because it would be impossible for anyone to infect anyone. In the second, it would be 100%.
        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Thirsty Cruz. Big E. Lets Ski.‏ @CruzThirsty 7 Aug 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        We don't have randomized sero data because we ain't got a functioning @cdc anymore! You know that already though

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Stop-the-MAGAss-Reich‏ @lumiere2016 7 Aug 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Assuming static homogeneous case argument seem plausible. If we have dynamic shift of underlying population, like exodus from NY earlier, I am not sure how this will play out. 'Random' serosurvey may be biased though. People who agree to it may already be inclined to mask...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Erin‏ @erincowgill 8 Aug 2020
        Replying to @zeynep @dwallacewells

        No one will even do data testing. The biggest opportunity in the world & no one is taking advantage of how much we could learn.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Tom Harrison‏ @tomharrisonjr 8 Aug 2020
        Replying to @erincowgill @zeynep @dwallacewells

        so right. this could have been an amazing dataset but now it's so dirty and inconsistent hard to know how much nuance is even present. I barely trust the biggest aggregates.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Bill Dawers‏ @billdawers 8 Aug 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Bill Dawers Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

        Fascinating thread as is one by @DiseaseEcology. Gotta say though that I wish we had another word besides “immunity” - something like “resistance” maybe. I fear that many will see “immunity” & assume it means more than it does in this context. https://twitter.com/diseaseecology/status/1291907438245863424?s=21 …https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1291907438245863424 …

        Bill Dawers added,

        A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
        Is herd immunity now high enough to contribute to reduced transmission of #COVID19? Thread from @trvrb is provoking substantial discussion as it should. I'd like to add a few details that aren't included. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992 …
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      2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 8 Aug 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Properly randomized and longitudinal serosurveys would be hugely helpful. Especially for age groups. And yes, didn't expect it to be so controversial to say that with 10% immunity and strong NPIs dropping Rt we expect some effect of immunity in reducing spread.

        3 replies 4 retweets 51 likes
      3. Dennis Bakke‏ @dwbakke 8 Aug 2020
        Replying to @trvrb @zeynep

        I don’t think you realize how people have been prepped since March to say that immunity has no effect. The “herd immunity is impossible” campaign has been wildly successful to the point that most people I know don’t believe immunity matters at all - only NPIs (or lack thereof)

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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