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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      However, societal behavior has dramatically reduced Rt through social distancing, mask wearing, etc... The surge in Florida had Rt of only ~1.4 at its peak. Because of this reduction in transmission through social means, we don't need as much immunity to impact spread. 7/16

      9 replies 64 retweets 402 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      Here, we expect Rt will equal R0 ⨉ fraction of the population susceptible ⨉ relative social connectivity. If R0 is 2.5 and social connectivity is 56% of normal then realized Rt will be 1.4. In this case, the herd immune threshold would be 29%. 8/16pic.twitter.com/AzMDXbIGxS

      6 replies 83 retweets 403 likes
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    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      We can plot out the general relationship between Rt (as red vs blue) vs population immunity (on the x-axis) vs social connectivity (on the y-axis). With R0 of 2.5, to keep Rt<1, we need either lots of immunity, very strong social distancing or something in between for each. 9/16pic.twitter.com/Jo4aXOe1Gl

      7 replies 121 retweets 532 likes
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    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      At this point, we think that a substantial fraction of the population of Florida has had COVID-19. If we use a 8:1 ratio of confirmed cases to underlying infections, we'd estimate 510k x 8 = ~4M infections in Florida or roughly 20% of the population. 10/16

      13 replies 86 retweets 396 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      Similarly, https://covid19-projections.com/us-fl  currently estimates 21% of Florida has had COVID-19 at this point. 11/16pic.twitter.com/JG6eZMXAs7

      12 replies 66 retweets 360 likes
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    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      Assuming a large majority of infections leave enough immunity to be protected (which I believe to be the case, though correlates of protection are still being worked out), population immunity of 20% will have real impact if societal behavior has already reduced Rt to ~1.2. 12/16

      16 replies 61 retweets 369 likes
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    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      I've been thinking of this as: to get to R0 of 1.0 with no immunity we need avoid 60% of transmission events. However, if 20% of the population is immune, then we need to avoid 50% of transmission events. 13/16

      4 replies 68 retweets 394 likes
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    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      Or, with 20% population immunity, we can behave as though Rt is 1.25 and still get an epidemic that no longer propagates. 14/16

      8 replies 40 retweets 325 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      Thus, I believe the substantial epidemics in Arizona, Florida and Texas will leave enough immunity to assist in keeping COVID-19 controlled. However, this level of immunity is not compatible with a full return to societal behavior as existed before the pandemic. 15/16

      24 replies 133 retweets 746 likes
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    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 7 Aug 2020

      That said, the costs for this immunity have been substantial and are continuing to accrue. We need a vaccine to achieve population immunity in a fashion that doesn't kill people. 16/16

      84 replies 128 retweets 1,025 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Aug 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      Thank you! This has become so hard to discuss on social media. 😬

      3:25 PM - 7 Aug 2020
      • 28 Likes
      • Nathan Franklin Vinay Gorur Michael McNamara LinniLotus Emi C Lindsay Wiley Julia Marcus, PhD, MPH
      1 reply 0 retweets 28 likes
        1. DrD‏ @DrDourbine 7 Aug 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @trvrb

          Plaudits for your perseverance in continuing to discuss it on social media.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. James Witker‏ @jwitker 7 Aug 2020

          And other hard-hit cities like London and... Stockholm.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation

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