Has there even ever been a case of a novel virus with an R0 of 2 or more being contained by the country where it originated???
-
-
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
SARS 2003 despite global spread. Taiwan, Hong Kong and New Zealand 2020, among others. Remember reintroductions don’t count. Also the key variable isnt R0, it’s also k, overdispersion. This thing is eliminatable in December of 2020. Absolutely plausible plus actual examples.
1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes -
Me: "being contained by the country where it originated" You: "SARS 2003 despite global spread" "global spread" means it spread beyond the borders of the country that originated it, Zeynep!!!
2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
Yes, a much worse scenario! It corresponds to your already escaped hypothetical, Noah. I’m giving an answer to the *strongest* version of your argument.
2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
No you're not. You gave an example of a virus spreading to other countries before being contained in multiple countries. You dodged the question I asked. Obviously this virus is much harder to stop than SARS, and SARS managed to escape its country of origin. Try again?
3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
How is it harder to contain a globally spread virus compared to one in just one city with known focal origin? Even Wuhan seems to have eliminated it even after much more spread, then got a reintroduction. Taiwan. Hong Kong. New Zealand. They had a shot. They spent it covering up.
1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes -
"How is it harder to contain a globally spread virus" <-- It was NOT contained in the country where it originated. Country of origin requires extra time to figure out what virus it's facing. So you have yet to provide me with an answer to my simple, direct question.
2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
Why? They knew. Doctors knew. They had the genome. They had it nailed very early. Not their first rodeo. If anything, country of origin has a much easier time because they have the focal place of origin. Lower bar for them.
1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes -
Again, a refusal to answer my question, followed by unsupported assertions that contradict evidence given elsewhere in the thread, and an incorrect assertion (it's a higher bar because it takes time to identify and understand a new virus). I think I'm done here!
3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes -
Twitter is the wrong place for a debate like this. The enforced brevity makes it hard to make a nuanced case. I would suggest an alternative network for it, but don’t want to get blocked.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
Agree, actually. If the lend itself well to the complexity. I don’t mind the disagreements but I keep trying to write more longform because of that. I don’t disagree with Noah on utter failure of most rest of the world, us on top. 
-
-
Replying to @zeynep @KenGoldsholl and
*it doesn’t. Man, sorry too many typos. I had hand surgery this week. (Not a big deal medically but bandaged and a pain in the hand so to speak!) I’m focused on writing things with practical import, but when we can focus on the future, I’ll try to write at a sensible length.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
I figured that's what you meant. And even without hand surgery,I get typos like that all the time.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.