How is it harder to contain a globally spread virus compared to one in just one city with known focal origin? Even Wuhan seems to have eliminated it even after much more spread, then got a reintroduction. Taiwan. Hong Kong. New Zealand. They had a shot. They spent it covering up.
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"How is it harder to contain a globally spread virus" <-- It was NOT contained in the country where it originated. Country of origin requires extra time to figure out what virus it's facing. So you have yet to provide me with an answer to my simple, direct question.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
Why? They knew. Doctors knew. They had the genome. They had it nailed very early. Not their first rodeo. If anything, country of origin has a much easier time because they have the focal place of origin. Lower bar for them.
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Again, a refusal to answer my question, followed by unsupported assertions that contradict evidence given elsewhere in the thread, and an incorrect assertion (it's a higher bar because it takes time to identify and understand a new virus). I think I'm done here!
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Also, by the way, I'd like to know why you deleted your earlier tweet declaring that "we have to go for herd immunity", after vigorously and angrily defending that tweet when I criticized it.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
That’s not what I said. I retweeted an article by two Harvard epidemiologists explaining the math better. Because most people still don’t understand the math. It got re-tweeted by an alt-right truther dude. I delete when that happens because the harassment makes Twitter unusable.
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I’m pretty proud of my own record on this, warning about the virus and explaining flattening the curve in February, writing the first big mask oped in mid-March, talking about outdoors in April, explaining ventilation/aerosols now. I’m good.
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You've been right about some things and wrong about others. The fact that you deleted your "we have to go for herd immunity" tweet (exact quote) tells me that you should be more forthright about the things you haven't gotten right! We all make mistakes...we need to own them.
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I find both of you so illuminating. Please don't fight like this.
@zeynep has a point about avoiding abuse while being a woman on the internet. Whether China could have prevented Covid from leaving the country is theoretical at this point. 45 still resp for 150K dead Americans.1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes -
Yep.1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
We don’t disagree about that part at all.
But let me just say, there’s gonna be a *next time* and it’s going to matter how we move aggressively early on. It may not even be China, but us. I wrote this in 2014. That’s why I’m raising this. That’s all. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1238465156750991360 …pic.twitter.com/bQLJZTLNli
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Replying to @zeynep @Noahpinion and
Is there a model showing how one could have realistically contained SARS-CoV-2? Given asymptomatic spread through air, it seems like you could be 99.9% vigilant and just a few mistakes would still cause it to spread far.
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Replying to @lautgesetz @zeynep and
It seems obvious we could have dramatically reduced the number of infections and spread overall. But that's different from containment
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End of conversation
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