"China could have supressed the whole pandemic." <-- There's no evidence for this, and massive evidence against this.
-
-
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
Of course there is. There was fewer than 100 cases at the end of Dec, and their doctors were screaming, and being shut down, that this was a SARS-like coronavirus. They had the genome, hence PCR tests. Lots of places have suppressed epidemics much larger. Nothing to reintroduce.
6 replies 0 retweets 21 likes -
No. Li Wenliang warned about it on 12/30/2019. There were already cases outside China by then. And instantly closing down a whole country in response to a few doctors' warnings about a new virus would have been unprecedented and unrealistic anyway. No, Zeynep.
5 replies 0 retweets 10 likes -
Has there even ever been a case of a novel virus with an R0 of 2 or more being contained by the country where it originated???
1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
SARS 2003 despite global spread. Taiwan, Hong Kong and New Zealand 2020, among others. Remember reintroductions don’t count. Also the key variable isnt R0, it’s also k, overdispersion. This thing is eliminatable in December of 2020. Absolutely plausible plus actual examples.
1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes -
Me: "being contained by the country where it originated" You: "SARS 2003 despite global spread" "global spread" means it spread beyond the borders of the country that originated it, Zeynep!!!
2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
Yes, a much worse scenario! It corresponds to your already escaped hypothetical, Noah. I’m giving an answer to the *strongest* version of your argument.
2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
No you're not. You gave an example of a virus spreading to other countries before being contained in multiple countries. You dodged the question I asked. Obviously this virus is much harder to stop than SARS, and SARS managed to escape its country of origin. Try again?
3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes -
There is no doubt that
@Noahpinion is correct on this point https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32179701/1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes -
Replying to @Mglo @Noahpinion and
Moreover the identified cases in the early months were probably 1-10% of the actual cases at that time.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
Check that article for when it starts ticking up, January. Very supportive of my point that there were very few in December. Yes by mid Jan it was harr cause with that much greater effort, and even then they seem to have managed it in Wuhan. (I read these papers before the RT!).
-
-
*hard. And thank you, that’s a very useful article.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.