Those were pretty important weeks.
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Replying to @jbarro
Were they though? Seems vanishingly unlikely that China could have stamped out the virus before it escaped their borders. And as for warning time, we had all the warning time in the world.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
COVID-19 was in France in December. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200506/first-french-covid-19-patient-was-admitted-in-december … The weeks when China covered it up were in January. https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-coverup/ … China couldn't have possibly contained COVID within its borders.
7 replies 10 retweets 51 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
December report is scientifically shaky. Meh plausibility. Many places got first introduction that led to transmission chains in late January/February. This virus is overdispersed, a lot of introductions don’t lead to anything. China could have supressed the whole pandemic.
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"China could have supressed the whole pandemic." <-- There's no evidence for this, and massive evidence against this.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
Of course there is. There was fewer than 100 cases at the end of Dec, and their doctors were screaming, and being shut down, that this was a SARS-like coronavirus. They had the genome, hence PCR tests. Lots of places have suppressed epidemics much larger. Nothing to reintroduce.
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No. Li Wenliang warned about it on 12/30/2019. There were already cases outside China by then. And instantly closing down a whole country in response to a few doctors' warnings about a new virus would have been unprecedented and unrealistic anyway. No, Zeynep.
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Has there even ever been a case of a novel virus with an R0 of 2 or more being contained by the country where it originated???
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
SARS 2003 despite global spread. Taiwan, Hong Kong and New Zealand 2020, among others. Remember reintroductions don’t count. Also the key variable isnt R0, it’s also k, overdispersion. This thing is eliminatable in December of 2020. Absolutely plausible plus actual examples.
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Me: "being contained by the country where it originated" You: "SARS 2003 despite global spread" "global spread" means it spread beyond the borders of the country that originated it, Zeynep!!!
2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
Yes, a much worse scenario! It corresponds to your already escaped hypothetical, Noah. I’m giving an answer to the *strongest* version of your argument.
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No you're not. You gave an example of a virus spreading to other countries before being contained in multiple countries. You dodged the question I asked. Obviously this virus is much harder to stop than SARS, and SARS managed to escape its country of origin. Try again?
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
How is it harder to contain a globally spread virus compared to one in just one city with known focal origin? Even Wuhan seems to have eliminated it even after much more spread, then got a reintroduction. Taiwan. Hong Kong. New Zealand. They had a shot. They spent it covering up.
1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes - Show replies
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