China: * Covered up COVID-19 for a couple weeks Trump: * Repeatedly said COVID-19 was about to disappear * Discouraged mask-wearing * Promoted quack cures * Called on armed protesters to stop social distancing measures * Tried to reduce testing to cover up a rise in cases
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Replying to @jbarro
Were they though? Seems vanishingly unlikely that China could have stamped out the virus before it escaped their borders. And as for warning time, we had all the warning time in the world.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
COVID-19 was in France in December. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200506/first-french-covid-19-patient-was-admitted-in-december … The weeks when China covered it up were in January. https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-coverup/ … China couldn't have possibly contained COVID within its borders.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
December report is scientifically shaky. Meh plausibility. Many places got first introduction that led to transmission chains in late January/February. This virus is overdispersed, a lot of introductions don’t lead to anything. China could have supressed the whole pandemic.
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"China could have supressed the whole pandemic." <-- There's no evidence for this, and massive evidence against this.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @jbarro
Of course there is. There was fewer than 100 cases at the end of Dec, and their doctors were screaming, and being shut down, that this was a SARS-like coronavirus. They had the genome, hence PCR tests. Lots of places have suppressed epidemics much larger. Nothing to reintroduce.
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No. Li Wenliang warned about it on 12/30/2019. There were already cases outside China by then. And instantly closing down a whole country in response to a few doctors' warnings about a new virus would have been unprecedented and unrealistic anyway. No, Zeynep.
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That’s the *public* warning! They suspected earlier this was a novel virus. Plus the transmission is overdispersed. Those shaky reports mean very little. By your logic, the 2003 elimination of SARS never have happened. Taiwan 2020 never happened. (Reintroduction don’t count).
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SARS is very different to COVID-19. Much shorter incubation period (2-7 vs 4-12 days) and unlike COVID-19 no significant pre-symptomatic transmission. In COVID-19 maximum infectivity reached 0 days before symptom onset vs 5-7 days for SARS.
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