We've since had natural experiment papers (comparing countries mask wearing/not). For this kind of variable, community-wide rather than individual, that's the best measure. Most of the confusion here is not realizing the source-control can't be measured with individual outcomes.
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Replying to @boriquagato
Dunno, "different genome" didn't seem to be of any protection in Wuhan. But look at Japan, then. Doesn't test widely, doesn't shut down, denial till late, does a few smart things for sure but very dense, subway heavily used. But, almost all masked. Control case.
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Replying to @boriquagato
If that were as protective, what happened in Wuhan? I suspect previous exposure will play a big role, eventually, in putting the puzzle together (recent papers on T-cell cross-reactivity are strong signals) but it's obviously not enough because .. Wuhan.
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Replying to @boriquagato
It was spreading pretty efficiently in Wuhan when they had to shut it down! Agree not all places explode exponentially, but Wuhan certainly did.
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Well, whatever it is, it's not genome. It's certainly over-dispersed in how it spreads and I think we'll know a lot more sometime after this is over. I mean, North vs South Italy? I don't have an answer but genome seems a big stretch in the same country.
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