Reason that past clinical studies, focusing on health-care worker outcomes, are not the best indicator is that masks for *source-control* is not an individual level variable. It's like asking if filters on car exhausts lower air pollution by measuring the air ... inside each car.
If that were as protective, what happened in Wuhan? I suspect previous exposure will play a big role, eventually, in putting the puzzle together (recent papers on T-cell cross-reactivity are strong signals) but it's obviously not enough because .. Wuhan.
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