The positivity rate should drop dramatically as more people are tested who are asymptomatic. The pools would be happening at schools, jobs, airplanes, and hotels. Of course pool size would need to be scaled with expected positivity rate.
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Maybe as an example of pool size scaling. Now we have 50k cases a day positive (rounding up) and 500k tests a day (rounding down). If you used 10 to 1, then worst case it would take 500k tests to go back and individually test positive groups.
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If we used a 5 to 1 ratio, however, then I'd need max 250k for retests. That means I could test 1.25M people on my first round with a 5 to 1 ratio using 250k tests. Of course in reality you would taylor the ratio to the area. Different ratios for Yuma, AZ vs Johnson City, TN.
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Of course there is always the risk of using too high a pooling ratio. (Maybe there are way more asymptomatic than we think.) In this case, positive groups would stay at home until individual tests could be done (or 2 weeks). Thus it would lock down areas of spread.
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One could make a very good argument that pooled testing would be a good idea even if individual tests aren't done if pooling groups are individuals that come in regular contact. Aka families, office groups, classrooms, etc.
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The pooling also lowers cost. I think there are some businesses that would be happy to pay $100 per employee per day to test all employees (and maybe even customers). NBA, NFL obvious examples (airlines prob too). At $10 a day, there are way more.
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Finally, thanks for taking the time to keeping us updated!
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Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep
Is any other country doing pooling? The federal government can just open a tab for testing at a negotiated rate with guaranteed minimums and let it rip across state, academic and private labs. All of this fooling around when the US could have just thrown money at the problem.
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Replying to @patrickbourke @zeynep
Remember the story about China testing 6 to 9 million people in 9 days. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-testing-intl-hnk/index.html …
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"According to Chinese news outlet Caixin, in order to test quickly and widely, Wuhan's health authorities combined some of the samples taken from multiple individuals together and tested them in a single tube -- a method known as "pool testing."
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John, you cannot do pooled testing effectively if the positivity rate is as high as it is here. Wuhan is not at all like us right now. Can you please drop me from this thread?
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Replying to @zeynep @patrickbourke
Fair enough. I'd love to understand better your thoughts on why (not on the Wuhan part, as I know that), but thanks again for your updates on covid. (I certainly didn't mean to tick off someone I follow.). Done.
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