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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @patrickbourke

      The positivity rate should drop dramatically as more people are tested who are asymptomatic. The pools would be happening at schools, jobs, airplanes, and hotels. Of course pool size would need to be scaled with expected positivity rate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep @patrickbourke

      Maybe as an example of pool size scaling. Now we have 50k cases a day positive (rounding up) and 500k tests a day (rounding down). If you used 10 to 1, then worst case it would take 500k tests to go back and individually test positive groups.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep @patrickbourke

      If we used a 5 to 1 ratio, however, then I'd need max 250k for retests. That means I could test 1.25M people on my first round with a 5 to 1 ratio using 250k tests. Of course in reality you would taylor the ratio to the area. Different ratios for Yuma, AZ vs Johnson City, TN.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep @patrickbourke

      Of course there is always the risk of using too high a pooling ratio. (Maybe there are way more asymptomatic than we think.) In this case, positive groups would stay at home until individual tests could be done (or 2 weeks). Thus it would lock down areas of spread.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep @patrickbourke

      One could make a very good argument that pooled testing would be a good idea even if individual tests aren't done if pooling groups are individuals that come in regular contact. Aka families, office groups, classrooms, etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep @patrickbourke

      The pooling also lowers cost. I think there are some businesses that would be happy to pay $100 per employee per day to test all employees (and maybe even customers). NBA, NFL obvious examples (airlines prob too). At $10 a day, there are way more.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep @patrickbourke

      Finally, thanks for taking the time to keeping us updated!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Patrick Bourke  🍁‏ @patrickbourke 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @zeynep

      Is any other country doing pooling? The federal government can just open a tab for testing at a negotiated rate with guaranteed minimums and let it rip across state, academic and private labs. All of this fooling around when the US could have just thrown money at the problem.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @patrickbourke @zeynep

      Remember the story about China testing 6 to 9 million people in 9 days. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-testing-intl-hnk/index.html …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @patrickbourke @zeynep

      "According to Chinese news outlet Caixin, in order to test quickly and widely, Wuhan's health authorities combined some of the samples taken from multiple individuals together and tested them in a single tube -- a method known as "pool testing."

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Jul 2020
      Replying to @jstonedotorg @patrickbourke

      John, you cannot do pooled testing effectively if the positivity rate is as high as it is here. Wuhan is not at all like us right now. Can you please drop me from this thread?

      10:44 AM - 1 Jul 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Erik Zembeck
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. John Stone  🌵‏ @jstonedotorg 1 Jul 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @patrickbourke

          Fair enough. I'd love to understand better your thoughts on why (not on the Wuhan part, as I know that), but thanks again for your updates on covid. (I certainly didn't mean to tick off someone I follow.). Done.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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