Good morning in sad, jealous tweets. All schools in Taiwan have been open since February. They did not listen to China or WHO in January and immediately masked up and shut down travel. They also traced the hell out of their outbreaks. They were practically done by February.
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Anyway, for people in the United States the sad, terrible reality is that barring something about the virus characteristics rescuing us despite ourselves (possible but absolutely not what we should bank on), make your plans for another year of this—till summer of 2021. I'm sorry.
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2020 may well be the end of the American century.
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Here's the reason to say all this now. Maybe, just maybe, we will get lucky because of some aspect of the virus. There are actual glimmers of hope. But hope is not a plan. Americans should plan for one more year of this with their family or community.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1278322483482025984 …
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It's July of 2020 and Americans are still not being informed correctly about what's actually high-risk. Just linking here to one of my many exasperated threads over many months. No and no, beaches aren't the key issue. Crowded indoors are.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1276587493316595712 …
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If you want so see a *really* exasperated thread, here's one that starts with my March NYT op-ed on masks--why telling people not to wear them was going to end up backfiring and hurting us all when the evidence was finally conceded that we needed masks.
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1239903421970501640 …
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Fauci: "We have to admit it, that that mixed message in the beginning, even though it was well meant to allow masks to be available for health workers, that was detrimental in getting the message across." Should have just said, sorry, there's a shortage.https://twitter.com/NPRHealth/status/1278476238189780997 …
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This is how done Taiwan is. They had a Pride parade. With any epidemic, acting today is always better than acting tomorrow. They acted in January.https://twitter.com/oramyw/status/1278330348170960898 …
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Our outbreak is too big to get enough antivirals for everyone who is sick. Ridgeback was bragging in May about how they would have a million doses of their antiviral ready by the fall. That's going to be like a two week supply at this rate.
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Deaths from the virus lag 2-4 weeks behind spikes in confirmed cases, so no one know what the numbers will be for this resurgence. Will be interesting to see the total deaths since March and onward compared to previous years. I expect the numbers will be revised upward.
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