The idea that this was somehow a mutantninjasuper virus against which we are powerless is nonsense. But yes, this is like a fire: the more area it consumes, the harder it is to put it out. Yes, it is not as big a priority as schools, but restaurants in Taiwan are open, too.
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They aren't letting that happen. Restricted travel. Also *for real* fourteen day quarantine even with a negative COVID test to those allowed to enter. No country that has succeeded is likely to let failures of countries like ours ruin their own success.https://twitter.com/AlanFeldstein/status/1278310456214671361 …
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Here's the truth for the US. Universal masking with targeted closures will help but the outbreak is huge now. Maybe we get *really* lucky with this virus. (T-cell cross-reactivity? An antiviral combo?) I hope so but can't count on it. Otherwise, it's another year of where we are.
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Anyway, for people in the United States the sad, terrible reality is that barring something about the virus characteristics rescuing us despite ourselves (possible but absolutely not what we should bank on), make your plans for another year of this—till summer of 2021. I'm sorry.
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2020 may well be the end of the American century.
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Here's the reason to say all this now. Maybe, just maybe, we will get lucky because of some aspect of the virus. There are actual glimmers of hope. But hope is not a plan. Americans should plan for one more year of this with their family or community.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1278322483482025984 …
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It's July of 2020 and Americans are still not being informed correctly about what's actually high-risk. Just linking here to one of my many exasperated threads over many months. No and no, beaches aren't the key issue. Crowded indoors are.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1276587493316595712 …
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If you want so see a *really* exasperated thread, here's one that starts with my March NYT op-ed on masks--why telling people not to wear them was going to end up backfiring and hurting us all when the evidence was finally conceded that we needed masks.
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1239903421970501640 …
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Fauci: "We have to admit it, that that mixed message in the beginning, even though it was well meant to allow masks to be available for health workers, that was detrimental in getting the message across." Should have just said, sorry, there's a shortage.https://twitter.com/NPRHealth/status/1278476238189780997 …
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This is how done Taiwan is. They had a Pride parade. With any epidemic, acting today is always better than acting tomorrow. They acted in January.https://twitter.com/oramyw/status/1278330348170960898 …
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