The 85 percent may be referring to testing, not the asymptomatic—seems only 15% were PCR-tested/confirmed. About half of the non-PCR tested seems to be asymptomatic (more in line with other studies). Hopefully the paper will clear this up!https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118306133/42-4-prozent-der-bewohner-ischgls-haben-antikoerper-gegen-sars …
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Replying to @zeynep
Yes, but they also say they tested 79% of population? Perhaps
@florianederer can help with the German? I interpreted the PCR testing to be trying to capture current infections (as of April), and didn't include that in my thread.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
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What percent were PCR-tested? What percent of the PCR-tested were asymptomatic? What percent of suspected positive based only on clinical profile (which we know from other studies can be highly-exaggerated) were asymptomatic? Conflicting reporting, so I guess we wait for paper.
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Replying to @NAChristakis @zeynep
According the newspaper: - 79% tested on antibodies - 85% of those tested AND with antibodies never tested positive for PCR (either not PCR tested or PCR negative) - half of those 85% were completely asymptomatic - the other half remembered symptoms (e.g., loss of sense of smell)
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Replying to @florianederer @zeynep
This is more confusing (to me). So, of the 42.4% who had SARSCoV2 antibodies (N=625), where 85% of THEM (do you think?) asymptomatic (which would, as I calculated, yield N=94 symptomatic cases)? This will affect the sCFR, but not the IFR, of course.
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Replying to @NAChristakis @zeynep
Yes, that's my reading of the newspaper article, but it is very confusing. Also, they're continuously updating the article with new information: - "3 step procedure with maximum sensitivity and practically 100% specificity" - likely follow-up to see how long antibodies persist
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Replying to @florianederer @zeynep
Thanks! I know it's not your own publication. We will have to wait for theirs..... but the IFR seems quite certain, given the current data, as does the overall attack rate. Both are informative.
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Replying to @NAChristakis @zeynep
I finally found the official press release here: https://www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html …
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Ah. Thank you! It does appear the newspapers were misinterpreting the press release. We'll have more clarity with the full paper. Very valuable study, though. (Public health envy from the US).
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Replying to @zeynep @florianederer
In what way does the actual press release contravene or expand on the newspaper articles and numbers reported earlier?
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Replying to @NAChristakis @zeynep
The newspapers report more (confusing) information on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases than the official press release. The latter has no information on the proportion of asymptomatic cases, but they may have said something in the press conference. Trying to find the video.
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