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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020

      I would guess age in this village skews young, which would explain low symptomatic case percentage and low-end IFR. Here is the only info yet released: - 1,259 adults - 214 children (<18) - 479 households 4/

      6 replies 7 retweets 58 likes
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    2. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020

      As is typical of SARSCoV2, the attack rate is lower in the young in this village: only 27% of tested children have antibodies (N=58). This means there were 625-58=567 adult cases. Which means attack rate in adults is 567/1,259=45.0%. 5/

      2 replies 6 retweets 73 likes
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    3. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020

      This overall attack rate is still a bit low for SARSCoV2, especially since well-mixed assumption probably holds in a small village like this. Herd immunity is reached (subject to assumptions) at (R0 - 1)/R0, which is 61.5% for R0=2.6 (which is what we estimate for SARSCoV2). 6/

      3 replies 6 retweets 57 likes
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    4. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020

      But, conversely, if epidemic is over in this village, which seems likely, calculation with above data yields an R0 of 1.9, which is on low end of prior outbreaks for SARSCoV2. But this would be good news from a transmissibility point of view, with respect to this pathogen. 7/

      7 replies 8 retweets 69 likes
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    5. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020

      The results have only been released via press release so far (in German): https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3054826/ … My thanks to @florianederer for bringing these fascinating data to my attention. NB @florian_krammer too. 8/

      3 replies 11 retweets 72 likes
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    6. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020

      PS The press release hilariously mentions that the low rate of hospitalizations is due to the tough mountain spirit in this Austrian village, I am told. 9/

      13 replies 9 retweets 149 likes
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    7. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020

      IFR = Infection Fatality Rate (fraction of people who get infected who die, whether they get symptoms or not) CFR = Case Fatality Rate (fraction of infected people who come to medical attention who die) sCFR = Symptomatic CFR (fraction of people with symptoms who die) 10/

      6 replies 11 retweets 75 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Jun 2020
      Replying to @NAChristakis

      The 85 percent may be referring to testing, not the asymptomatic—seems only 15% were PCR-tested/confirmed. About half of the non-PCR tested seems to be asymptomatic (more in line with other studies). Hopefully the paper will clear this up!https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118306133/42-4-prozent-der-bewohner-ischgls-haben-antikoerper-gegen-sars …

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
    9. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Yes, but they also say they tested 79% of population? Perhaps @florianederer can help with the German? I interpreted the PCR testing to be trying to capture current infections (as of April), and didn't include that in my thread.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Jun 2020
      Replying to @NAChristakis @florianederer

      Yeah, confusing reporting!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @NAChristakis @florianederer

      What percent were PCR-tested? What percent of the PCR-tested were asymptomatic? What percent of suspected positive based only on clinical profile (which we know from other studies can be highly-exaggerated) were asymptomatic? Conflicting reporting, so I guess we wait for paper.

      7:28 AM - 25 Jun 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Florian Ederer Antti David Lazer Sheldon Chang - SaaS, Ergo, + Photos
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 25 Jun 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @florianederer

          Yes.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Florian Ederer‏ @florianederer 25 Jun 2020
          Replying to @NAChristakis @zeynep

          According the newspaper: - 79% tested on antibodies - 85% of those tested AND with antibodies never tested positive for PCR (either not PCR tested or PCR negative) - half of those 85% were completely asymptomatic - the other half remembered symptoms (e.g., loss of sense of smell)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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