With some calculation, this yields: IFR = 0.32% (which is very typical of SARSCoV2) And, given low level of symptomatic cases (perhaps due to young age?), sCFR = 2.1% (which is very high!) (2/94) (Most studies show about ~50% asymptomatic cases of COVID19.) 3/
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I would guess age in this village skews young, which would explain low symptomatic case percentage and low-end IFR. Here is the only info yet released: - 1,259 adults - 214 children (<18) - 479 households 4/
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As is typical of SARSCoV2, the attack rate is lower in the young in this village: only 27% of tested children have antibodies (N=58). This means there were 625-58=567 adult cases. Which means attack rate in adults is 567/1,259=45.0%. 5/
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This overall attack rate is still a bit low for SARSCoV2, especially since well-mixed assumption probably holds in a small village like this. Herd immunity is reached (subject to assumptions) at (R0 - 1)/R0, which is 61.5% for R0=2.6 (which is what we estimate for SARSCoV2). 6/
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But, conversely, if epidemic is over in this village, which seems likely, calculation with above data yields an R0 of 1.9, which is on low end of prior outbreaks for SARSCoV2. But this would be good news from a transmissibility point of view, with respect to this pathogen. 7/
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The results have only been released via press release so far (in German): https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3054826/ … My thanks to
@florianederer for bringing these fascinating data to my attention. NB@florian_krammer too. 8/3 replies 11 retweets 72 likesShow this thread -
PS The press release hilariously mentions that the low rate of hospitalizations is due to the tough mountain spirit in this Austrian village, I am told. 9/
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IFR = Infection Fatality Rate (fraction of people who get infected who die, whether they get symptoms or not) CFR = Case Fatality Rate (fraction of infected people who come to medical attention who die) sCFR = Symptomatic CFR (fraction of people with symptoms who die) 10/
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Replying to @NAChristakis
The 85 percent may be referring to testing, not the asymptomatic—seems only 15% were PCR-tested/confirmed. About half of the non-PCR tested seems to be asymptomatic (more in line with other studies). Hopefully the paper will clear this up!https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118306133/42-4-prozent-der-bewohner-ischgls-haben-antikoerper-gegen-sars …
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Replying to @zeynep
Yes, but they also say they tested 79% of population? Perhaps
@florianederer can help with the German? I interpreted the PCR testing to be trying to capture current infections (as of April), and didn't include that in my thread.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Yeah, confusing reporting!
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What percent were PCR-tested? What percent of the PCR-tested were asymptomatic? What percent of suspected positive based only on clinical profile (which we know from other studies can be highly-exaggerated) were asymptomatic? Conflicting reporting, so I guess we wait for paper.
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