We already have an earliest known case of mid-November. October cases are thus of course plausible. But there is no finding here. Nothing to report yet. *shouts into the void*
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Look, reporting from preprints is fine, and there has been many good ones, but you really have to do the legwork and not rush, especially if the claim is very bold and consequential. Watch the caveats. Ask skeptical questions. Wait. Let papers evolve. *disappears into the void*
4 replies 9 retweets 57 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Lena (Mimi) 🏠
This is not evidence at all! We have had antibody studies that show only a third of people who had genuine strong suspicion that they had COVID (their doctor thought so; they lived with COVID positive person) in *February* actually had COVID.https://twitter.com/athletespw/status/1270402000522489861 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Lena (Mimi) 🏠 @athletespwReplying to @zeynepAs I said, many athletes who were at the Military Games in Wuhan at end of October had symptoms similar to Covid19-symptoms. Here is an Italian article from a known paper https://www.corriere.it/sport/20_maggio_07/coronavirus-wuhan-quei-mondiali-militari-atleti-tornati-cina-quelle-strane-febbri-novembre-8924b39a-9037-11ea-b981-878bbbd902eb.shtml … To say "there were no Covid19-cases before mid-November" seems at least bold.3 replies 4 retweets 38 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Please also check this thread on the alleged early COVID wave. The curve fitting is reliant on maybe two days? Spike in parking in one hospital for two days? Could be anything. (I hope reviewers notice this). Meanwhile, very very thin story has gone viral. https://twitter.com/crushspread/status/1270570534581878784 …
zeynep tufekci added,
This Tweet is unavailable.1 reply 6 retweets 16 likesShow this thread -
Also note that if there was indeed a major wave of COVID in China in August 2019 (thin thin claim based just on searches for "diarrhea" but not anything respiratory but okay), there would be a lot of *export* of the disease, which we would be able to confirm via antibody testing.
1 reply 5 retweets 25 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Will Ma
It's getting even shakier. Honestly, with all due respect to the authors (we're human, mistakes happen to everyone) and with my best and most generous interpretation of everything they claim, there was already nothing there in this paper without all this.https://twitter.com/WillMaStat/status/1270850256121540608 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Will Ma @WillMaStatI followed up with the Harvard team and found out “腹泻的症状” ("symptoms of diarrhea") was used, rather than “腹泻”("Diarrhea"), as the keyword in their search data analysis. Interestingly enough, the search volume of “腹泻” is actually decreasing during July-Dec 2019. pic.twitter.com/9jw6AcKisYShow this thread2 replies 4 retweets 21 likesShow this thread -
So, no "dramatic spike" in parking lots in October (seems just two days); hospital may have had construction and has underground parking; "diarrhea" search isn't a good lone signal for COVID but many saying they didn't even get the term right in Chinese. *Nothing* is holding up.
1 reply 2 retweets 22 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Will Ma
And it's just not plausible that there is any massive early spike to the degree there are pileups in hospitals (which the data do not show but even if it did) but no "shortness of breath" or any respiratory symptoms for COVID? Come on.https://twitter.com/WillMaStat/status/1270964472086179846 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Will Ma @WillMaStat@johnbrownstein needs to look at other symptoms of#COVID19 besides diarrhea, e.g., "short of breath”, “difficulty breathing" (“呼吸困难","气短"). The search volume of both terms are rather flat throughout 2019, which started to climb in late Jan 2020. pic.twitter.com/qM8gDvU1hsShow this thread1 reply 4 retweets 21 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Zed Fang
More questions. Also note that one parking lot (top right) is absolutely empty. If there were a few cars that would be more reasonable. Absolutely empty could be closed off for the day.https://twitter.com/fang__z/status/1270431757469392899 …
zeynep tufekci added,
3 replies 6 retweets 21 likesShow this thread -
Oh, my. Here we are. No amount of correction will undo this damage. In my view, even in the most generous reading of this draft, neither claim (searches—maybe, for "diarrhea"—or parking lot counts—which show no trend, just two outlier days) support any such finding, even weakly.pic.twitter.com/B4R89QWKnp
4 replies 16 retweets 66 likesShow this thread
One article adding more experts questioning that "August COVID in China" study. It got widely reported, tweeted by the president but it's clear that it just doesn't hold up at all. But the correction is disappearing into the void.https://www.thedailybeast.com/experts-doubt-trumps-new-favorite-report-on-covid-19s-earlier-origins …
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