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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      The 1957 pandemic tended to attack young people more, according to focused contemporaneous studies in LA and MO (which is why, incidentally school closures are so effective at retarding spread), but mortality was highest in the very long and very old, in an inverted U shape. 14/pic.twitter.com/LTBWCpHDE0

      9 replies 61 retweets 369 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      Pertinently, NOT everyone was afflicted in 1957, however. The overall attack rate was 41% in LA & 34% in MO. For COVID19, experts like @mlipsitch estimate that 20-60% of people will ultimately contract the pathogen. This is typical of flu epidemics. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8877331  15/

      3 replies 75 retweets 396 likes
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    3. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      But mortality from 1957 outbreak in the USA was U-shaped, as most pandemics are, killing the very young (<5) and very old (>65). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8877331/  This is different than COVID19, which seems to spare the young (like some other flus) (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf …). 16/pic.twitter.com/ojPA9vUX52

      2 replies 57 retweets 365 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      This combination of facts (school-aged people attacked, young & old die) reflects general pattern whereby the virus spreads in people who are out & about (at school & work) interacting. Virus is ‘brought home’ to kill age extremes who are at the end of the transmission chain. 17/

      1 reply 88 retweets 474 likes
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    5. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      Therefore, immunizing the old, while it will reduce deaths, does not have much effect on the actual course of the epidemic. Everyone has to be immunized to get herd immunity, and immunizing working-age people helps break chains of transmission through social networks. 18/

      2 replies 102 retweets 638 likes
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    6. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      The 1957 pandemic ended as people became immune over a period of three years. Possibly the virus became less virulent too. We can expect COVID19 to similarly become 'endemic,' but probably after several waves of affliction, alas. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291411/ … 19/

      7 replies 229 retweets 686 likes
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    7. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      In the modern era, we control pandemics by surveillance (and testing!) and rapid development of vaccines (but even “rapid” development is 12-18 months, alas). 20/

      11 replies 87 retweets 528 likes
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    8. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      In sum, COVID-19 resembles 1957 influenza pandemic in certain epidemiological ways (despite different pathogen & different age curve), which is what makes it more alarming than other pandemics that periodically afflict us. We're still not certain, but will know more soon. 21/pic.twitter.com/UvXuAXiF8P

      31 replies 205 retweets 760 likes
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    9. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Mar 2020

      #3 in this thread involved an infuriating autocorrect error! This should read RIBOVIRUS, not rhinovirus. Both COVID-19 and 1957 flue are riboviruses. Influenza A is Riboviria, Phylum: Negarnaviricota, and Coronavirus is Riboviria, Phylum: incertae sedis. 22/

      89 replies 86 retweets 967 likes
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    10. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Jun 2020

      I'd like to update my assessment, from exactly 3 months ago, re the likely severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, using a classic schema (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/1/12-0124_article …). I think this pandemic will take at least 300,000 lives in USA, even as many as 500,000, before it's done. It's bad. 23/pic.twitter.com/249bNJVSip

      43 replies 313 retweets 521 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 Jun 2020
      Replying to @NAChristakis

      Plus the morbidity, which seems so terribly understudied but seems to have a fairly fat tail of terrible effects. Hopefully not chronic, but not sure we have the sufficient surveillance in place to even check for that, yet.

      9:39 AM - 14 Jun 2020
      • 11 Retweets
      • 94 Likes
      • Dave-ish V. Stacy Marie Sunshine_Fit ☔Jason Murphy Peter Cribbett Theresia Liebs Verity Pace 🌐 daryn
      1 reply 11 retweets 94 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 14 Jun 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Yes. I’m worried about that too. We must wait to see it. My clinical colleagues at Yale have set up a “post-covid” clinic, which gives you a sense of how worried they are.

          4 replies 26 retweets 145 likes
        3. Chris Maer‏ @Chris_Maer 14 Jun 2020
          Replying to @NAChristakis @zeynep

          Any insights for a lay person into co-morbidity? It’s my understanding that cause of death is open to debate. A significant % had other diseases at time of death that may/may not have been the primary factor. Are standards being applied nationally?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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