Oh, wow. If true, this is nuts. I mean, the preprint paper is citing "Global Times" to support their assertion the market may not be the source of the virus. Internet searches and satellite data is fine to use, but there is no "top story" here. *headdesk*https://twitter.com/bastianpurrer/status/1270396180296597504 …
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We already have an earliest known case of mid-November. October cases are thus of course plausible. But there is no finding here. Nothing to report yet. *shouts into the void*
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Look, reporting from preprints is fine, and there has been many good ones, but you really have to do the legwork and not rush, especially if the claim is very bold and consequential. Watch the caveats. Ask skeptical questions. Wait. Let papers evolve. *disappears into the void*
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Lena (Mimi) 🏠
This is not evidence at all! We have had antibody studies that show only a third of people who had genuine strong suspicion that they had COVID (their doctor thought so; they lived with COVID positive person) in *February* actually had COVID.https://twitter.com/athletespw/status/1270402000522489861 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Lena (Mimi) 🏠 @athletespwReplying to @zeynepAs I said, many athletes who were at the Military Games in Wuhan at end of October had symptoms similar to Covid19-symptoms. Here is an Italian article from a known paper https://www.corriere.it/sport/20_maggio_07/coronavirus-wuhan-quei-mondiali-militari-atleti-tornati-cina-quelle-strane-febbri-novembre-8924b39a-9037-11ea-b981-878bbbd902eb.shtml … To say "there were no Covid19-cases before mid-November" seems at least bold.3 replies 4 retweets 38 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Please also check this thread on the alleged early COVID wave. The curve fitting is reliant on maybe two days? Spike in parking in one hospital for two days? Could be anything. (I hope reviewers notice this). Meanwhile, very very thin story has gone viral. https://twitter.com/crushspread/status/1270570534581878784 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Also note that if there was indeed a major wave of COVID in China in August 2019 (thin thin claim based just on searches for "diarrhea" but not anything respiratory but okay), there would be a lot of *export* of the disease, which we would be able to confirm via antibody testing.
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Replying to @crushspread
I'm just being as generous as possible. Under the best interpretation I can muster, there is nothing here. I otherwise like such methods! But so many news outlets have run with it. People with the right credentials sometimes believe their own just-so stories. Human.
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That's implementation. Online rumor/search tracking, satellite images, etc. can be very useful but *of course* with substantive expertise about the topic, too. But yeah, not like this. It's remarkably weak as a paper and citations don't make sense either.
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