Misinformation alert. The outbreak is already dated to November, so October cases are not implausible *but* that paper has so many problems and so much hand-waving that it should not be cited, let alone made into news articles.https://twitter.com/borzou/status/1270250085084016641 …
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So, no "dramatic spike" in parking lots in October (seems just two days); hospital may have had construction and has underground parking; "diarrhea" search isn't a good lone signal for COVID but many saying they didn't even get the term right in Chinese. *Nothing* is holding up.
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And it's just not plausible that there is any massive early spike to the degree there are pileups in hospitals (which the data do not show but even if it did) but no "shortness of breath" or any respiratory symptoms for COVID? Come on.https://twitter.com/WillMaStat/status/1270964472086179846 …
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More questions. Also note that one parking lot (top right) is absolutely empty. If there were a few cars that would be more reasonable. Absolutely empty could be closed off for the day.https://twitter.com/fang__z/status/1270431757469392899 …
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Oh, my. Here we are. No amount of correction will undo this damage. In my view, even in the most generous reading of this draft, neither claim (searches—maybe, for "diarrhea"—or parking lot counts—which show no trend, just two outlier days) support any such finding, even weakly.pic.twitter.com/B4R89QWKnp
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One article adding more experts questioning that "August COVID in China" study. It got widely reported, tweeted by the president but it's clear that it just doesn't hold up at all. But the correction is disappearing into the void.https://www.thedailybeast.com/experts-doubt-trumps-new-favorite-report-on-covid-19s-earlier-origins …
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Google trends data is so hard to do right. The gap between what gets typed into a search bar and what's happening in the real world is massive. And it's so tempting to keep trying variations on your core search term until you get the signal you're looking for.
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Especially in a language you don't speak.
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