Misinformation alert. The outbreak is already dated to November, so October cases are not implausible *but* that paper has so many problems and so much hand-waving that it should not be cited, let alone made into news articles.https://twitter.com/borzou/status/1270250085084016641 …
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Please also check this thread on the alleged early COVID wave. The curve fitting is reliant on maybe two days? Spike in parking in one hospital for two days? Could be anything. (I hope reviewers notice this). Meanwhile, very very thin story has gone viral. https://twitter.com/crushspread/status/1270570534581878784 …
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Also note that if there was indeed a major wave of COVID in China in August 2019 (thin thin claim based just on searches for "diarrhea" but not anything respiratory but okay), there would be a lot of *export* of the disease, which we would be able to confirm via antibody testing.
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It's getting even shakier. Honestly, with all due respect to the authors (we're human, mistakes happen to everyone) and with my best and most generous interpretation of everything they claim, there was already nothing there in this paper without all this.https://twitter.com/WillMaStat/status/1270850256121540608 …
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So, no "dramatic spike" in parking lots in October (seems just two days); hospital may have had construction and has underground parking; "diarrhea" search isn't a good lone signal for COVID but many saying they didn't even get the term right in Chinese. *Nothing* is holding up.
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And it's just not plausible that there is any massive early spike to the degree there are pileups in hospitals (which the data do not show but even if it did) but no "shortness of breath" or any respiratory symptoms for COVID? Come on.https://twitter.com/WillMaStat/status/1270964472086179846 …
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More questions. Also note that one parking lot (top right) is absolutely empty. If there were a few cars that would be more reasonable. Absolutely empty could be closed off for the day.https://twitter.com/fang__z/status/1270431757469392899 …
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Oh, my. Here we are. No amount of correction will undo this damage. In my view, even in the most generous reading of this draft, neither claim (searches—maybe, for "diarrhea"—or parking lot counts—which show no trend, just two outlier days) support any such finding, even weakly.pic.twitter.com/B4R89QWKnp
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One article adding more experts questioning that "August COVID in China" study. It got widely reported, tweeted by the president but it's clear that it just doesn't hold up at all. But the correction is disappearing into the void.https://www.thedailybeast.com/experts-doubt-trumps-new-favorite-report-on-covid-19s-earlier-origins …
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End of conversation
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There were plenty of really nasty non-covid bugs in circulation this winter. An awful lot of people got pretty sick after a conference we attended in early January. I'd expect that a notable portion of those illnesses would have included hospitalizations had it been covid.
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I remember hearing a report that based on genetic mutations, the inferred date of the jump to humans was around November. The purpose of the study was to see whether China had been hiding the disease for longer. Sadly I can't remember where I heard it; just the conclusion stuck.
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