Misinformation alert. The outbreak is already dated to November, so October cases are not implausible *but* that paper has so many problems and so much hand-waving that it should not be cited, let alone made into news articles.https://twitter.com/borzou/status/1270250085084016641 …
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Oh, wow. If true, this is nuts. I mean, the preprint paper is citing "Global Times" to support their assertion the market may not be the source of the virus. Internet searches and satellite data is fine to use, but there is no "top story" here. *headdesk*https://twitter.com/bastianpurrer/status/1270396180296597504 …
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We already have an earliest known case of mid-November. October cases are thus of course plausible. But there is no finding here. Nothing to report yet. *shouts into the void*
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Look, reporting from preprints is fine, and there has been many good ones, but you really have to do the legwork and not rush, especially if the claim is very bold and consequential. Watch the caveats. Ask skeptical questions. Wait. Let papers evolve. *disappears into the void*
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This is not evidence at all! We have had antibody studies that show only a third of people who had genuine strong suspicion that they had COVID (their doctor thought so; they lived with COVID positive person) in *February* actually had COVID.https://twitter.com/athletespw/status/1270402000522489861 …
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Please also check this thread on the alleged early COVID wave. The curve fitting is reliant on maybe two days? Spike in parking in one hospital for two days? Could be anything. (I hope reviewers notice this). Meanwhile, very very thin story has gone viral. https://twitter.com/crushspread/status/1270570534581878784 …
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Also note that if there was indeed a major wave of COVID in China in August 2019 (thin thin claim based just on searches for "diarrhea" but not anything respiratory but okay), there would be a lot of *export* of the disease, which we would be able to confirm via antibody testing.
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It's getting even shakier. Honestly, with all due respect to the authors (we're human, mistakes happen to everyone) and with my best and most generous interpretation of everything they claim, there was already nothing there in this paper without all this.https://twitter.com/WillMaStat/status/1270850256121540608 …
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So, no "dramatic spike" in parking lots in October (seems just two days); hospital may have had construction and has underground parking; "diarrhea" search isn't a good lone signal for COVID but many saying they didn't even get the term right in Chinese. *Nothing* is holding up.
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And it's just not plausible that there is any massive early spike to the degree there are pileups in hospitals (which the data do not show but even if it did) but no "shortness of breath" or any respiratory symptoms for COVID? Come on.https://twitter.com/WillMaStat/status/1270964472086179846 …
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More questions. Also note that one parking lot (top right) is absolutely empty. If there were a few cars that would be more reasonable. Absolutely empty could be closed off for the day.https://twitter.com/fang__z/status/1270431757469392899 …
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Oh, my. Here we are. No amount of correction will undo this damage. In my view, even in the most generous reading of this draft, neither claim (searches—maybe, for "diarrhea"—or parking lot counts—which show no trend, just two outlier days) support any such finding, even weakly.pic.twitter.com/B4R89QWKnp
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One article adding more experts questioning that "August COVID in China" study. It got widely reported, tweeted by the president but it's clear that it just doesn't hold up at all. But the correction is disappearing into the void.https://www.thedailybeast.com/experts-doubt-trumps-new-favorite-report-on-covid-19s-earlier-origins …
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End of conversation
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