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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage @zeynep

      I think some of the issue is that most academics aren’t courageous enough to take a stand on the evidence without a gold standard RCT to back them up. The sum total of the evidence backs up @zeynep’s points. But too many are afraid of the very small chance masks could backfire.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @ZoeMcLaren @zeynep

      I think you’re probably right for at least some academics. I would always prefer high quality evidence myself, but recognize it may not be available on the time scale I need

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      Disagree a bit. The quality of the "for" evidence needed is related to the evidence for harms. Almost all the alleged harms were either baseless, or there was evidence to the contrary (from decades of research). We had enough "for" evidence—especially given lack of harms.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      I'm risk-averse myself, when it comes to evidence. For example, I'd been tweeting to be wary of the HCQ harms arguments from that observational Lancet study (long before it was retracted) because.. Exactly. Not highest quality evidence, given they unblinded RCTs & found no harms.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      Look at this new preprint. They find, quite unsurprisingly, that masks *increase* distancing. I've been arguing this for months based on social science evidence! This is what you'd expect, not false sense of security nonsense. But all this was disregarded. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf …pic.twitter.com/k7f0ZiQQ4s

      2 replies 4 retweets 11 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      I don't think problems was lack of high-quality evidence—though sure, we can't have RCTs. Rather: the evidence that was there was dismissed; evidence free hand-waving was allowed for harms; and unresonable evidentiary standards were only held for masks, not for say, hygiene.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Laura Derksen‏ @lauraderksen 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      An aside: why can't we have an RCT, with an encouragement design and IV specification? Eg provide free masks, cluster-randomised by workplace? This seems doable and important.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @lauraderksen @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      I had this exact discussion early on with people on how to try but I couldn't see an ethical context or a workable framework during a pandemic. Rich countries? People will mask up, cost little issue. Poor countries? Given evidence "for" side, how do you withhold? Plus, not blind.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Laura Derksen‏ @lauraderksen 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      Here in Toronto lots of employees are not wearing masks, incl shops. Maybe pay people to wear them? No need to withhold from the control group in an encouragement design. Agree not blind, but that means you capture the full effect incl behavior change which is also interesting.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @lauraderksen @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      The problem is masks for source-control is a community-wide intervention, controlling for egress, not ingress. So the RCT design wouldn't make sense with individual level measurement (and why a lot previous health-care research isn't applicable despite WHO being stuck on them).

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @lauraderksen and

      I would NOT ever advocate this, but if you distributed masks, say, in one refugee camp and not the other at similarly early in an outbreak, you might get RCT-compatible design, but this is not ethical by any stretch so no no no. So, maybe natural experiments at country level?

      11:58 AM - 6 Jun 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Zoë McLaren, PhD
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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