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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Note "false sense of security" claim in the guidance has no citations. I briefed this guidance committee on how that worry was not just without evidence, there is evidence to the contrary. Disappointed they still just hand-waved it in. Paper under review:https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1268935532396130305 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Here's a preprint of a paper (I'm a co-author) where we review the "false sense of security" claim and explain why it doesn't stand to evidence at all, and why, on the contrary, universal masks would be expected to lessen stigma and heighten solidarity. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v2 … pic.twitter.com/2tDzvYGNVr
      Show this thread
      3 replies 4 retweets 9 likes
    2. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Interesting! Thanks for sharing. There’s something about mask use that veers into the ideological

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage

      Indeed! Lack of RCTs are cited as a reason not to mask despite other evidence, but then evidence for harms and worries is all without citations and mostly hand-waving. Then, handwashing for COVID has less RCT evidence but nobody worries about that (but, of course, let's do it!).

      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
    4. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      It’s definitely too nuanced for Twitter, but there is something interesting about what counts as evidence, and how to make decisions when you don’t have all the evidence you’d like. RCTs if possible are great, but they’re not the *only* source of evidence.

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
    5. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage @zeynep

      I think some of the issue is that most academics aren’t courageous enough to take a stand on the evidence without a gold standard RCT to back them up. The sum total of the evidence backs up @zeynep’s points. But too many are afraid of the very small chance masks could backfire.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @ZoeMcLaren @zeynep

      I think you’re probably right for at least some academics. I would always prefer high quality evidence myself, but recognize it may not be available on the time scale I need

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      Disagree a bit. The quality of the "for" evidence needed is related to the evidence for harms. Almost all the alleged harms were either baseless, or there was evidence to the contrary (from decades of research). We had enough "for" evidence—especially given lack of harms.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      I'm risk-averse myself, when it comes to evidence. For example, I'd been tweeting to be wary of the HCQ harms arguments from that observational Lancet study (long before it was retracted) because.. Exactly. Not highest quality evidence, given they unblinded RCTs & found no harms.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      Look at this new preprint. They find, quite unsurprisingly, that masks *increase* distancing. I've been arguing this for months based on social science evidence! This is what you'd expect, not false sense of security nonsense. But all this was disregarded. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf …pic.twitter.com/k7f0ZiQQ4s

      2 replies 4 retweets 11 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      I don't think problems was lack of high-quality evidence—though sure, we can't have RCTs. Rather: the evidence that was there was dismissed; evidence free hand-waving was allowed for harms; and unresonable evidentiary standards were only held for masks, not for say, hygiene.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

      So, I don't think people arguing masks should have been encouraged/mandated were "brave" despite lack of high-quality evidence; rather, I think the other "side" (painfully included WHO and CDC at first) acted contrary to evidence, made baseless claims and ignored actual evidence.

      10:23 AM - 6 Jun 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • Lucy Seton-Watson John Q Public Mark Polhill becoming archive of olimay 2022/01/01 nailbomb3
      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Jun 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

          So I consider myself risk-averse when it comes to evidence and demanding of highest-quality possible with careful consideration to risks on all sides of the decision.😃 (And HK/Taiwan/S Korea etc. certainly have excellent infectious disease specialists and were ahead of us/WHO).

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 6 Jun 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage

          Ok yes I see. Sorry for any mischaracterization Zeynep! Yes lots of evidence, but the overly risk averse may dither until there’s an RCT even in the face of other types of high-quality evidence that should make it clear to them. We’re on the same page.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 6 Jun 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @ZoeMcLaren

          I think this is the conversation I needed to have a couple weeks back after reading an oped on masks and evidence I disagreed with and couldn’t quite articulate why. You just did. Will look for it

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Mark Polhill‏ @mpolhill 6 Jun 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @BillHanage @ZoeMcLaren

          It is discouraging to me that we can’t have a national effort to encourage everybody everywhere to wear masks when in a potential spreading situation. There is a real chance that this could put a big dent in the spread, and thereby allow an effective TTI with no downside.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 6 Jun 2020
          Replying to @mpolhill @zeynep @BillHanage

          I think that by now we have arrived at that. Or are closer to it. The dithering happened earlier. And wasted time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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