What I'd say to you and @jonst0kes is, I'd love precise estimates right now, but wishing doesn't make it so. We make decisions with partial information all the time, in fact, decision science is based on that entire notion.
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @matthewstoller and
I agree with Gregg. There really is no way to estimate this. I think what we can have is to have a list of please don't activities (indoor, unmasked, talk/sing: the 3Cs of Japan) and if you must, please do (outdoor funerals/church/protests: mask, distance, rotate positions etc).
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Replying to @zeynep @matthewstoller and
I don't think there is no way to measure this, we just haven't figured it out yet! But we don't sit on our hands waiting to act for perfect data, real-time decisions have to be made and the perfect can be the enemy of the good.
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @matthewstoller and
Agree we could for some activities & we can also do more if we had data (sigh, US). On the other hand, for protests— which I personally broke quarantine to participate in (masked and distant)—it's not that calculable because will they work? Don't know. But we must, morally, try.
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Replying to @zeynep @gregggonsalves and
Okay. So I see having certain politics grants one sufficient immunity to disease and the law to make owen’s own judgement.
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Replying to @michaelbd @zeynep and
Can you just stop. No one is saying this. If you want to talk about balancing competing health risks in this country, how to stage reopening with harm reduction as a primary concern we can do that.
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @zeynep and
The George Floyd protests, worthy as they may be, break the same regs that have been used to break up outdoor funerals, that prohibit socialization of extended families, that bar in-person therapies for children. You only started talking trade offs when you wanted something
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Replying to @michaelbd @zeynep and
Um. No. Here is me on May 8th: “Shaming people is, I think, like ‘Just Say No to Drugs,’” “It doesn’t deal with people’s psychology, with people’s economic circumstances, their own fears and anxieties, and so it just seems wrong to me.” 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/opinion/coronavirus-public-shaming.html …
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @michaelbd and
He "remembers how agonizing many people found it to change their behavior in the 1980s. “If you’re going to tell people they can’t have sex for 40 years, people would be pissed." 2/
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @michaelbd and
“If we had a rational, national conversation about what’s going on, we could start to have these conversations,” said Gonsalves. “When is it safe to open up your immediate social unit to one or two other people? We need some of this guidance, and we’re not getting it." end/
1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
Yeah, here's me in April, 7. "Closing the parks is ineffective pandemic theater." https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/closing-parks-ineffective-pandemic-theater/609580/ … We're agreeing that messaging wasn't always great, but public health as a field really is very used to harm-reduction frameworks. Authorities and media, not so much.
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Replying to @zeynep @gregggonsalves and
And here's me on May 11: "As other epidemics have shown, trying to shame people into 100 percent risk reduction will be counterproductive."https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/quarantine-fatigue-real-and-shaming-people-wont-help/611482/ …
2 replies 8 retweets 31 likes -
Replying to @JuliaLMarcus @zeynep and
Julia Marcus, PhD, MPH Retweeted Julia Marcus, PhD, MPH
Julia Marcus, PhD, MPH added,
Julia Marcus, PhD, MPHVerified account @JuliaLMarcusI've been thinking about the widespread concern that masks will promote a "false sense of security." We've learned a few things from#HIV prevention and#harmreduction that I think should make us cautious about this messaging. 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/well/live/coronavirus-face-mask-mistakes.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes …Show this thread0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
End of conversation
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