You personally may have been a "hawk", though just like you are now having this conversation perhaps with the very public health people who did a lot to push for harm reduction frameworks, they are also seeing the opportunism which does exist and may not mean you.
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There would be no “opportunism” if there were coherent answers.
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There'd still be opportunism, but yes, coherent answers help. Everyone can fight "own" side opportunism better than others, but I agree public health folks should reflect on where the field fell short (even as a lot of it was unfair: media sensationalism that wasn't their doing).
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Replying to @zeynep @michaelbd and
Personally I don’t see a lot of coherence here.
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Replying to @matthewstoller @zeynep and
We have two competing health crises: COVID and police violence. We are trying to manage trade-offs. Some are saying, they can't be managed and protests are inadvisable, others are saying, we can address both, while minimizing harms. That's the debate here.
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @zeynep and
Matt Stoller Retweeted jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)
Yes I’m aware. Here’s one framework on how to consider trade offs. If someone has answered them please point me to the estimates. Honestly not trying to provoke here.https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1268983068091731976?s=20 …
Matt Stoller added,
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Replying to @matthewstoller @zeynep and
What I'd say to you and
@jonst0kes is, I'd love precise estimates right now, but wishing doesn't make it so. We make decisions with partial information all the time, in fact, decision science is based on that entire notion.3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @gregggonsalves @matthewstoller and
I dream of being able to causally attribute a treatment effect to lockdown, or relaxation policies, to the protests, etc. But we have an identification problem here. What if we can't have the estimates Jon wants?https://www.nber.org/papers/w25320
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @matthewstoller and
Then we should have said, at the beginning of the lock down, that we didn't know for sure if the lock down was worth it.
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Replying to @Neoavatara @gregggonsalves and
Either we need to be more evidence based when stating certainty on these things, or demonstrate more humility.
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It can be worth it, without that level of evidence. Lombardy, Wuhan and NYC data, in my view, absolutely justified the initial strong response. I don't see how anyone could advise anything else in March. The problem is how to move from that initial point; that's very tricky.
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