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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020

      These propensity score based results show that even after adjustment, HCQ treatments do much worse in observed outcomes. https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6/attachment/84423d57-4cf8-41d0-99ca-0e921f2c80ce/mmc1.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    2. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020

      The usual, and reasonable, concern about propensity score based adjustment is that decision makers--here, the docs choosing whether to use HCQ treatments--know stuff that researchers can't measure. https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6/attachment/84423d57-4cf8-41d0-99ca-0e921f2c80ce/mmc1.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    3. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020

      If docs use HCQ as a Hail Mary pass for worst cases, & if that's hard to measure with observed data, then there's selection on unobservables,a nd it will look like HCQ makes thing worse b/c it is given to those who will have worse outcomes even w/out HCQ. https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6/attachment/84423d57-4cf8-41d0-99ca-0e921f2c80ce/mmc1.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    4. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020

      I (truly) wonder what additional variables docs have that these researchers couldn't/didn't use. From my quick read of the report's Table S7, those variables would have to matter an awful lot to explain away the results in this study. https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6/attachment/84423d57-4cf8-41d0-99ca-0e921f2c80ce/mmc1.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    5. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020

      To wrap up, this study alone makes clear that it's wrong to say there is no evidence that HCQ causes harm. If you accept the research approach used in this study, which is not uncommon, then there is actually powerful evidence. https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6/attachment/84423d57-4cf8-41d0-99ca-0e921f2c80ce/mmc1.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    6. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020

      I'm not a COVID expert, so I don't have an informed opinion as to whether p-matching approach used here is missing variables that could reverse these results. But imho someone who is would have to give some good reasons to disregard this study. https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6/attachment/84423d57-4cf8-41d0-99ca-0e921f2c80ce/mmc1.pdf … /fin

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 May 2020
      Replying to @gelbach

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Robert M Califf

      It’s not a “take”, go to the top of my thread and follow the RCT unblinding.https://twitter.com/califf001/status/1264636314504138752 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Robert M Califf @califf001
      Important statement from RECOVERY Trial in UK about continuing RCT of hydroxychloroquine. @texhern @HeartBobH @gcfmd @PCORnetwork @ASlavitt https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/professional-downloads/recovery_noticetoinvestigators_2020-05-24_1422.pdf …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      I did read your thread! (In fact, I responded to it in at least one place; so did a lot of others, so I don't blame you for not responding). You claim that there is "no evidence", and you dismiss non-RCT evidence. Maybe that's not a "take", but imho it's mistaken.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 May 2020
      Replying to @gelbach

      No don’t read my thread, read the RCT notice that I linked to.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      But I was responding to your claim! That RCT evidence is still being collected doesn't eliminate fact that non-RCT evidence exists. I wouldn't repeat this point but for the fact that your thread suggests there's something wrong w/people behaving as if the non-RCT evidence eixts.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 May 2020
      Replying to @gelbach

      No, no they unblinded and checked. Anyway, it’s in the link!

      6:54 PM - 24 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Jonah Gelbach‏ @gelbach 24 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          This doesn't respond to my point, which is about non-RCT evidence.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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