It's important not just to remember this (the incorrect guidance on masks) but to study and understand it. When I wrote my "masks work" op-ed on March 17 for the New York Times, I honestly thought I was likely ending my career as a public writer. https://twitter.com/Aelkus/status/1261994903007113216 …
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I mean, millions of people in Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan etc. wearing masks for months... No past reason to suspect increased risk; no current reason to suspect increased risk. Plus, "increased risk" from risk compensation would apply to hand-washing.
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We have a respiratory disease; lots of lab tests; tons of countries and their experience; a very good physical model; lots of research from past (with SARS, most effective method: masks) etc. At this point, masks have stronger evidence than most. All three is good though.
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I suspect that "never" is a strong word to use there, but I'll definitely do some reading. I sincerely appreciate the dialog
@zeynep, and the work you're doing on this question :) -
Well, okay fair enough. So far, we haven't found a case in which risk-compensation behavior (a second-order effect) overwhelmed the benefits of the safety device (first-order effect). I don't doubt it occurs at some level, but it seem like a very small effect relatively speaking.
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