Some of these pieces fit the noble savage genre. Yes, there are public health rock stars in poorer countries. But there are also places with grave problems some of which have (so far) avoided outbreaks. What's going on? Dunno. But the just-so story is a disservice to the crisis.
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I think we are getting a clearer picture on how places facing outbreaks can get a handle on things, but still less clear on the distribution of places that are (so far and thankfully) spared.
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This seems Bayesian? Conditional on exposure, governance a major factor in outcomes. I realise there are multiple unknowns packed into "conditional on exposure", so not exactly disagreeing with you. (Reluctant to entertain the idea governance may be irrelevant, I guess?)
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On balance, key factor for Kerala seems to be recent experience of successfully containing / responding to a viral outbreak. With Nipah, it's somewhat like Kerala was able to rehearse their crisis management plan. The experience has been invaluable in COVID-19 response.
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potential patient 0 in kerala arrived in mid-february (a student directly from wuhan) and they were immediately quarantined. the health professionals learned everything chinese medical industry had determined by that point, and followed best practices before discharging
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What are some places that had terrible governance and contained an outbreak?
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counterpoint: the Kerala stories show how you can have a government that takes care of people, regardless of infection rates
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